Digressions on Baseball

Fernando Perez: Proto-Artist-Athlete of the Future?

2012-01-07T23:03:00.000-08:00

Hoping to quench my thirst for baseball during MLB's winter break, I've been listening to various podcasts (FanGraphs Audio; Up And In; The Baseball Show with Joe and Rany), which has been great fun all around, and very educational.

I just finished Carson Cistulli's conversation with Fernando Perez, former Tampa Bay Rays outfielder, published poet, and one of only 13 players in major league history to who attended Columbia University.

In a conversation that should fascinate even casual fans of the sport, Perez discusses his recent experiences in and out of baseball, touching on his roller-coaster journey as a would-be professional athlete, as well as what has sometimes been an equally confounding struggle for fulfillment (not to mention publication) as a creative writer.

Perez hasn't played in the bigs since 2009, and has bounced around from the Cubs' farm system to the Mets' in the interim. Displaying the self-awareness you'd expect from, well, from a poet, Perez describes his employment strategy for the 2012 season: trying to sign a minor-league contract with whatever team has the worst starting outfielders. Failing that, he might call up Rays executive Andrew Friedman to shoot the breeze, try to get his former boss laughing and in good spirits, and, when the mood feels right, make a play for a spring training invitation.

This vulnerability and openness is a welcome departure from the stereotypical image of the pro athlete whose unshakable confidence is a key to success within the bounds of competition, but who also seems allergic to (if not incapable of) authentic expression outside the lines. To some extent, I hold mainstream broadcasters and other sports media personalities responsible for this trend by filling so much airtime with cliches and useless chatter. In half-time and post-game interviews, players and coaches are either recycling the garbage spewed out by those speak for a living. Crap imitates crap.

Here's a crazy thought: what would happen if each league hired a Director of Creativity who would be responsible for organizing off-season poetry jams or dance lessons? By challenging personnel to stretch artistically, and integrating creative exercises into typical player development programs, pro sports leagues could help make millionaire athletes easier to relate to, or in the very least as entertaining as Fernando Perez. Some well-known examples of pro athletes who have crossed over to participate other pop culture forms include Miguel Batista (pitcher-novelist), Bernie Williams (outfielder-guitarist), Rick Fox (NBA swingman, actor), and, if you believe this amusing photo gallery, Andre Agassi (tennisser-pianist).

Look, I'm not saying we need to find more opportunities to heap attention and validation on star athletes. Truth be told, there are some who I'd just as soon not hear from at all unless they're breaking down game film. I just wish there was an easier way for fans to get more of a picture of what our favorite players are all about, and I want those representations to be more lyrical, colorful, and introspective than the status quo. Maybe I'm just not paying close enough attention, but it seems that even as more and more players find their way onto Twitter -- which has unquestionably made direct access easier-- most of the Tweets are shout-outs and inside jokes to former teammates.

I don't really know where I'm going with this. I think my earlobes hurt from frustration. Maybe I'll take a minute to turn on Bernie Williams' "La Salsa En Mi" to calm me down. Or watch an episode of "Oz." On second thought, maybe just the salsa music. I'll figure it out. In the meantime, here's hoping Fernando Perez re-signs with the Mets this season. I don't know if he can help them escape the National League East cellar, but if nothing else, he should be good for a few laughs.

Beer review: Tanilla Porter (Knee Deep Beer Company)

2012-01-05T23:24:00.000-08:00

I was driving up to Lake Tahoe over Labor Day weekend last summer, and stopped off at a Raley's in Auburn to pick up lunch. I usually like to peruse the beer aisle when I'm in "foreign" grocery stores, hoping to snag a hard-to-find favorite, or otherwise something unfamiliar but enticing.

Browsing the unusually deep selection, I came upon a label I didn't recognize, and whose tribal designs recalled those printed on Peet's coffee cups. On closer inspection I discovered a style and manufacturer I'd never experienced. Examining the bottle further, I discovered it was "Brewed and Bottled for Knee Deep Beer Company by Beer4U, Belmont, California." This amused me, because I'd just moved from Belmont after living there the previous two years, but had no recollection of either company.

It was an snap decision to purchase the Tanilla Porter, but finding the right occasion to crack it open took significantly more discretion and patience. I had more or less decided to hang on to the Tanilla until I could share it as an after-dinner beer with friends. Typically, when I select a bottle with the intention of enjoying it solo, I opt for something a bit more conventional, a known quantity, eschewing my one-of-a-kind bottles in favor of something I can more easily replenish.

Unfortunately, I haven't had too many dinners with beer-drinking friends in the last few months. First, I was occupied with moving-related tasks, and then I was busy with rehearsals for a play that ran in November, and then before you knew it, The Holidays were upon us...

For various reasons, I decided that part of my New Year's Resolution would be to stop buying beer for my home collection. Even though I decided this in December, I more or less forgot to stockpile "everyday" beers when I had the chance, and so I entered 2012 with only a few session beers on hand (mostly leftover bottles of Stella from a recent party), but several of these one-of-a-kind bottles. So it happened that the other night, when I was in the mood for a post-dinner tipple, I decided what the hell, and poured myself a luscious mug of sweetly aromatic Tanilla.

I must confess that the tasting experience peaked just as (no, not before) the first sip of rich porter coated the inside of my mouth. It's not that I didn't like the Tanilla, don't misunderstand me. It's just that the inviting smell which drew my lips closer to the glass was in itself the ultimate reward after months of anticipation. As it turned out, taste and feel were sensations I wasn't really in the mood for after delaying gratification for so long.

Now, perhaps I had built it up so much for myself that anything less than an instantaneous bufotenin surge would have been anticlimactic. Perhaps. All I know is that as soon as the Tanilla splashed onto my tongue map, the wait was over. Reality was upon me. It was, after all, just a beer.

As for getting into the specifics of mouthfeel, color, viscosity, and all that, I leave those details to other Beer Advocate reviewers, and will close by saying that this beer did not disappoint me. Far from it, actually. And if I learned anything from the experience, it's that I need to recruit a few friendly volunteers to help bring me back down to earth a little bit, and drink my beer with me in a more timely fashion, so I don't obsess too much about finding the perfect time to open this bottle or that one, like Sideways' Miles with his Château Cheval Blanc.

Heck, I wouldn't even mind reloading with a fresh bottle of Tanilla to share with friends -- in 2013, of course.

Stuffed

2012-01-01T14:02:00.000-08:00

I have too much stuff. I know this. I have known this for awhile. Almost every year since I moved into my freshman college dorm in 2001, I've packed my stuff into boxes and unpacked it into my new living space. Actually, there were some years when I moved my stuff more than once.

In 2002, after that first year away from home, I moved my stuff out of A-349 in UCSC's Merrill College and packed it all up in my friend Colin's car. I was headed back to spend the summer at my parents' house in Palo Alto. Colin's parents lived there, too, and he was headed back there anyway. After safely shepherding the car, me, and my stuff over Highway 17, Colin helped me unload everything onto the sidewalk in front of my parents' house, and said goodbye. It was well after midnight, and as I brought my stuff into my parents' garage, box by box, I was careful not to make too much noise.

Just a few months later, I was loading up a rental truck with my dad. We were moving all my stuff back across Highway 17. Colin and some other friends from Merrill had found a large house on Western Drive where the seven of us could live. I wasn't too sure what the place looked like but I took it on good faith there would be room for all my stuff there (home is where the stuff is). My dad and I spent the day driving around Santa Cruz looking for furniture to keep my stuff in. In addition to a bed and a desk, we picked out a bookshelf and dresser that I still have and use for keeping stuff.

Except for that first summer as a college student, almost all my moves have been from old home to new home. Almost all my leases have lasted for twelve months, so there hasn't been a need to move stuff into my parents' house for the summer. There have been times I moved my stuff in one shot, using a rented van or truck, and there have been times I moved my stuff gradually, a few boxes at a time. Every time I pack up my stuff, there are invariably a few boxes of stuff I haven't looked at since the last time I moved them. When I have time, I'll look through them, I've told myself. Most of these boxes have labels, so there's no real mystery as to what they contain: Old Electronics; Misha's Schoolwork; Memories.

I've packed each of these boxes with stuff I've accumulated or created personally. Every time I move them, I tell myself this stuff is or will be valuable enough to me that it's worth crating it around and making space in my home for it. When I think about how I've saved these boxes of stuff, I feel somewhat embarrassed by the contradiction of preserving the immaterial past by collecting and preserving these physical reminders, all the while entombing them in boxes that remain perennially closed.

Now, I don't exactly feel this behavior is materialistic because these boxes of stuff are packed away, unused, almost immaterial, actually, because they are invisible and their value is (at present) purely symbolic. Materialism means you buy stuff to impress people by decorating your home with it (right?). All my books, movies, music, and bottles of booze, carefully chosen and arranged to convey a wealth of taste and experience -- now there's materialism, for you.

I didn't set out to be a materialist, or a hoarder. A lot of this stuff I received as gifts, and a lot of it I purchased with the best of intentions, but have not touched since (except, of course, to put into and take out of moving boxes). I've been reading and collecting books since I was a child, but until the last two months, had ready exactly one work of fiction in the previous nine years. Some of the books I've had but not read for going on twenty years. My movie collection grew out of being a film major (or was it the other way around)? In addition to my CD collection (which has itself become a box of stuff, long ago backed up as mp3s), I have a shelving unit full of vinyl. Some of the records are vital rock standards, but mostly, I fell in love with the idea of owning records a few years ago, and haven't really listened to most of them, even once. The booze collection started before my dad traveled to India in spring of 2010. It feels like ages ago. I helped him clean and pack his house, and in return he sent me home with a crate full of odd bottles: most of a bottle of creme de menthe from Cuba, a few splashes of Remy Martin XO, two old bottles of Belgian beer... it was enough to get me curious and get me started on my own home bar. Now I'm the one keeping stuff in his cellar.

My resolution this year is to get a grip on my stuff. The bookcase from college is full, over-full, actually: there are books on top of the case. Some of those books are from college, books I didn't read then, but always meant to get around to reading. The dresser is full or knick-knacks (and has some books inside), and is pulling double duty as a bar, with dozens of bottles of liquor on top. Most of the bottles are open, but a few are not (I've been saving them for a special occasion). The entertainment center is (nearly) full with moves (and a few games). I have seen most of the movies, and at least read the instruction manual to most of the games, a few remain strangers. Many of the books and music are unexplored.

And I'm always getting more of all of this stuff, because there's always something new, something exciting, something to add to the collection (or worse, a new collection to start). Something that reminds me of something else I have, or something that reminds me of a person or experience I enjoy. Sometimes I ask for stuff as a present, and it usually ends up on one shelf or another. So you see, I'm worried that if I don't put the brakes on accumulating sooner rather than later, I am going to get caught in the cycle of chasing more and more stuff. And after moving (on average) once per year since 2001, I know by now that I have more than enough stuff to keep me going for some time (at least a year, I'm sure). So I'm putting an end to it. At least for a little while.

I won't bring anything new into my home in 2012. There is already so much there that is new to me. I'm going to dedicate some effort to taking inventory of what I already have, and I'm going to start enjoying it and sharing it more. With friends, with family, with anybody who is interested. And in addition to the books, movies, music, and booze on my shelves, I'm going to make my way into the boxes of stuff I've held off on exploring for so long. As I type this, I am palpably excited as I think about what I might discover. What I might remember. What I might have wanted to forget.

My current lease doesn't run out for another eight months, and I don't intend to move when it's over. I like where I live, and I want to keep moving in, rather than moving on. But to do that, I need to deal with all this stuff I have. I haven't fully decided how to start, but I'm going to write about it as I go. And as the year goes on, I just might feel like I have more than when I started.

Enjoy Every Sink Bath: Songs of 2011

2011-12-20T11:40:00.000-08:00

Last week I finished up my second ever year-end musical mix CD: "Enjoy Every Sink Bath," a collection of songs I was really into during 2011. Some of the songs were released in the past 12 months, and many were released long ago. A full track listing appears below, and with one exception, all songs are available for download on iTunes.

The project's title alludes to Warren Zevon's quote on death and dying -- "Enjoy every sandwich." -- and extends the playful theme of that advice while honoring the departed Buffalo Bill, our family's pet guinea pig, who is seen above, enjoying his sink bath.

My first try at a mix CD was in 2008, which was when Buffalo Bill passed away. I got the idea of compiling a gift CD from a co-worker, Ryan, and in tribute to Buffalo Bill, I named my annuary "The Year of the Buffalo" and slapped a photo of him on the cover. That mix was a lot of fun to put together, although it was challenging to fit all my favorite (at the time) music onto a single CD.

Since then, I've spent less and less time discovering new music, have been listening to music less, in general. Part of that is because listening to new music actually requires time and effort. Whereas I used to check out new tunes during periods at work when I was performing dull, data entry-related tasks, lately my work has required greater concentration and fewer uninterrupted blocks during which I can immerse myself in whatever's hot on Pitchfork/Stereogum/AV Club/etc.

Mostly though, I blame it on Ryan leaving our company nearly two years ago (don't worry, his mix CDs are still going strong)

Anyhow, this year I was re-energized with respect to engaging in music. I trotted out to local festivals (Outside Lands, Bridge School Benefit, Noise Pop), became smitten with Spotify, and actually purchased new music for the first time in lord knows how long. Even better, I learned that several of my favorite co-workers share my musical tastes, and they have pointed me in the direction of new stuff all year long.

Once I decided that I wanted to make a mix CD to say "thanks," the main challenges were 1) ordering the various songs in a enjoyable flow, 2) getting my track list under 80 minutes, and 3) choosing only one song per artist. I had to cheat a little bit (removing 25 seconds of near silence for space consideration, editing two tracks into one) but the night before I wanted to hand them out, I finally had to stop tinkering and sat down to spend a few hours burning 30 copies.

Well, I thought it went off without a hitch, but a few folks have started to tell me that their CDs do not contain track data. I confirmed this when I inserted one of them into my hard drive and iTunes displays the list as "Track 01," "Track 02," etc. I was initially totally bummed about that because the whole point was to share music with my friends, so I decided to post the track list at the bottom of this blog entry, and also provide a back story to the album name.

Enjoy Every Sink Bath | Songs of 2011

If you didn't receive a copy and would like to, or if you did receive a copy and want me to correct the track info on your copy of "Enjoy Every Sink Bath," please get in touch; I'd hate for the reason you don't listen to this music to be that it required your time and effort.

Good Decisions, Bad Decisions

2011-10-02T11:41:00.000-07:00

This afternoon, the Arizona Diamondbacks will send righty Daniel Hudson to the mound. Hudson was a fixture in the Snakes' rotation this season, compiling a 16-12 record in 33 starts.

Shortly after I noticed that his win-loss total included two double-digit numbers, it struck me that I couldn't think of any other hurler who was the pitcher of record more times than Hudson in 2011.

A quick check on MLB.com confirmed my suspicions.

Hudson's 28 decisions tied him with Seattle's Felix Hernandez, Tampa Bay's James Shields, and Oakland's Gio Gonzalez for second-most in the bigs (Gonzalez's decision total is all the more impressive for having been amassed in only 32 chances).

The top of the leaderboard featured another tie.

One of the co-champs was hardly surprising: Justin Verlander, the most brilliant pitcher in a year filled with pitching brilliance, earned a decision in all but five of his 34 turns, going 24-5.

Verlander's dominance -- he limited opposing batters to a .192 average, striking out nearly one batter per inning -- allowed him to go deep into ballgames: the average Verlander start lasted 7.38 innings. In this measurement of longevity, Verlander trailed only Shields, who logged 7.54 IP/G on the way to completing 11 games, a total which also led the major.

Ironically, because of the suspension of ALDS Game 1 due to rain, Verlander was ineligible for a decision after game play paused with a 1-1 tie score. Anyway, the point is: pitching a lot of innings increases the likelihood that a starting pitcher will end up being the pitcher of record

How, then, to explain the curious case of Hideki Kuroda, the 36 year-old Dodgers righty who averaged a mere 6.31 IP/G but who nonetheless failed to earn a decision only three times in 32 starts? That's a decision rate over 90 percent, for those keeping track at home.

Kuroda's 29 decisions weren't all smiles and sunshine, though; despite his 3.07 ERA he lost 16 games, the most by any Dodger pitcher since Orel Hershiser in 1987.

That was a tough season for Hershiser. Like Kuroda would 24 years later, he sported a low ERA (3.06) for an under-performing Los Angeles team that finished well off the playoff pace (in my opinion, neither Dodger pitcher should be discredited for getting tagged with so many losses, given their strong peripheral statistics).

A funny thing happened in 1988, though: the Bulldog won the Cy Young Award, setting the record for most consecutive scoreless innings along the way, and the Dodgers went onto the playoffs and the World Series, during which Hershiser tossed two complete games and went on to win the Series MVP trophy.

Fans often remember the 1988 World Series for a different achievement, though. A hobbled shortstop who left the Tigers to play for LA before the 1988 season -- and whose regular season performance and leadership earned him the 1988 NL MVP Award -- provided a magical ending to Game 1 when he gimped up out of the dugout, stepped into the box, and clobbered Dennis Eckersley's slider into the left-field bleachers to send the crowd home happy.

It's been 23 Octobers since Kirk Gibson etched his name in the record books, and as manager of the Diamondbacks, his ball club is down 1-0, on the road, and facing a pitcher who didn't lose at home all year. Milwaukee jumped all over Arizona's ace, Ian Kennedy, in the series opener, and at some point in the middle innings of Game 2, possibly before Daniel Hudson has established himself as the pitcher of record, Gibson may again have to make the long walk on to the diamond, this time for a totally different reason.

Despite Hudson's success racking up decisions during the regular season, and even though the 24 year-old was still in diapers when the Impossible happened, something tells me that if and when Gibson pulls his from the game, the youngster won't question his decision making.

The Men With Two Names

2011-10-01T20:37:00.000-07:00

As St. Louis right-fielder Allen Craig stepped up to the plate in the first inning of today's Cards-Phils matchup, it dawned on me that two-thirds of the St. Louis starting outfield (Craig and center-fielder Jon Jay) are manned by players who have two first names.

Questions raced through my mind:

Is it weird to have more than one of these guys patrolling the same outfield? What about the other playoff teams? Are their lineups stocked with guys who could pass for superheroes?

To further my study, I needed to find a definitive postseason roster for each of the eight current playoff teams.

Fortunately this was easy to find: MLB.com shares active rosters for every club and even groups players by fielding position: Pitchers, Catchers, Infielders, Outfielders, and (for AL squads) Designated Hitters.

While compiling results, I occasionally had trouble deciding who to include or exclude from my count. For instance, Tampa Bay's Johnny Damon is an easy inclusion, but what about Brewers outfielder Nyger Morgan? His first name is barely a first name. And players such as Arizona's Ryan Roberts come close, but if we're being precise, "Roberts" is just not the same as "Robert."

To help me settle these edge cases, I elected to let the U.S. Government be my ultimate authority for name verification: if a player's first and last names exactly matched two of the Top 750 baby names for the year 2010, I counted him.

Why 750? Twenty-five players per team times 30 teams in MLB gets us to 750.

Crude, perhaps, but you have to set the cutoff somewhere. If that means we don't count Phillies slugger Ryan Howard because his family name is the male equivalent of "Fay" -- at #905, "Howard" sits between "Lionel" and "Davon" on the baby name popularity index, circa 2010 -- so be it.

Another note on methodology: since Allen Craig and Jon Jay inspired this research, I restricted my survey to non-pitchers (with apologies to playoff hurlers Wade Davis, Edwin Jackson, and Colby Lewis).

Okay, onto the names. Without further ado, your 2011 Jay Bruce All-Stars:

Arizona Diamondbacks: 0

Detroit Tigers: 3
Austin Jackson (#64, #25); Don Kelly (#377, #306-F*); Ramon Santiago (#480, #133)
* Kelly was the 306th most common name for U.S. females born in 2010.

Milwaukee Brewers: 0

New York Yankees: 1
Russell Martin (#406, #258)

Philadelphia Phillies: 1
Ben Francisco (#692, #196)

St. Louis Cardinals: 2
Allen Craig (#323, #665), Jon Jay (#576, #414)

Tampa Bay Rays: 1
Johnny Damon (#266, #419)

Texas Rangers: 1
Nelson Cruz (#569, #321)

It turns out St. Louis trails only Detroit in terms of stocking up on these types of hitters. If we see a Cardinals-Tigers World Series, I think we can safely deduce that these teams' fates lay in their players' names.

As an aside, I was surprised to learn that so many Hispanic names are popular as baby names, but perhaps I shouldn't be. For a semi-related graphical representation of the rise of Latino surnames on baseball uniforms, check this out.

Mets vs. Braves

2010-04-25T17:14:00.001-07:00

First Inning

The Mets fielders follow Mike Pelfrey onto the playing field, and applause scatters down from the home fans. If the Citi Field crowd seems lacking in enthusiasm for this Sunday Night Baseball matchup, perhaps it's because raindrops are falling as well.

Three thousand miles away, I'm sitting in my recliner fighting off beads of sweat, not because of the expected intensity from tonight's intradivisional competition, but because the late afternoon California sun shines through our apartment windows and turns the living room into a sauna.

From my long distance, high-def, tropical viewpoint, the field looks damp, but not exactly soaked, as Braves leadoff man Melky Cabrera steps into the batters' box. Stadium floodlights are reflected in the moisture on Cabrera's helmet, which features a glossy sheen not unlike a freshly polished bowling ball.

Pelfrey, the Mets' tall right-hander, retires Cabrera on two quick pitches, and sets down the next batter, Martin Prado, without much trouble. So far, so good.

Who but Larry Wayne "Chipper" Jones should step to the plate with two out so get the Atlanta offense moving. Nicked up and aging but menacing as ever when facing the Mets, L-Dub draws a five-pitch walk.

That's fine. Let him on first. He can't run, which he shows by failing to score on a long double to right by the cleanup hitter Brian McCann. Pelfrey walks Troy Glaus to load the bases for Jason Heyward.

Uy.

Heyward, displaying a tremendous combination of plate coverage and plate discipline, works the count full and the fouls off several pitches before popping up harmlessly to end the Braves' threat in the first.

Phew.

Having stymied the Braves most talented young hitter, the Mets face off against Atlanta's top young pitcher, Tommy Hanson. Hanson sets down Angel Pagan and overpowers Luis Castillo. So far, so bad.

Jose Reyes bloops a single that falls eight feet in front of left fielder Cabrera, and then wastes little time taking second base off Hanson and McCann. When Jason Bay grounds a ball softly down the third base line, L-Dub shows his age, diving for a ball that a third baseman shouldn't have to, and short-arming his throw way off line. Amid the confusion, Jose Reyes scoots home, and the Mets nab their first run of the game.

Second Inning

ESPN's television broadcasters tonight are Jon Miler, Joe Morgan and Orel Hershiser. Two Hall of Famers and a Cy Young award winner -- hey, not bad.

Hershiser is almost certainly best remembered for that magical 1988 season, when he was not only the Cy Young winner but picked up some other serious hardware as the Dodgers' MVP in both the NLCS against the Mets, and the World Series against the Dodgers (although Orel's postseason brilliance may be forgotten by most fans in lieu of a particularly memorable Kirk Gibson-Dennis Eckersley encounter in Game 1).

Anyway, Hershiser's most famous and longstanding achievement from the '88 season was his streak of pitching 59 consecutive scoreless innings. It just so happens that Mike Pelfrey hasn't allowed a run since his first start of the season, a stretch of 19 innings going into tonight's content.

The streak seems destined to end, though, as Pelfrey has really labored to get through the first two innings, needing 60 pitches. Perhaps the rain can be blamed; I wouldn't say he's been wild, but Pelfrey has walked three through two, which doesn't bode well unless Hanson starts to slip as well.

Pelf works his way through two, though, with the streak intact, and Hanson answers by mowing down the first couple of Mets batters, then farting around with Henry Blanco and walking the punchless backstop.

Joe Morgan freaks out, calling it a sin to walk the No. 8 hitter with two outs, which ordinarily I'd agree with, since you'd love to have the opposing pitcher lead off the following inning. In this case though, bringing Pelfrey to the plate means you're tiring him out even more, and coming off two long innings, the last thing Pelfrey needs if he's already tired is to be digging in for an at bat against Tommy Hanson.

I'm not suggesting Hanson was pitching around Blanco intentionally, but I don't think it was actually that bad a move, all things considered. Maybe credit Bobby Cox for this one? Maybe a savvy Braves beat writer will ask him about it after the game.

For his part, Pelfrey doesn't go down without a fight. After working the count to 2-2, Pelf fouls off three straight Hanson offerings before grounding out to second base to end the inning. Way to go Pelf! I liked his effort. This could be a disastrous next half-inning in the field for him, but he showed me something.

Third Inning
The third inning isn't quite as disastrous as I predicted, as the Braves make three outs with a game-low 16 pitches. More importantly, the scoreless streak stays alive when Heyward comes to bat with men on first and second and one out but grounds a double play ball at Reyes to end the threat.

This makes five runners stranded by Heyward in his first two at bats. I'll take it, but just as John Maine was able to pitch around trouble early in last Sunday night's game against the Cardinals (also the ESPN Sunday Night game), the Mets' good fortune against the Jay Hey Kid can't continue all night long.

In the Mets' half of the third, Luis Castillo breaks for second with one out and Reyes batting, and after Brian McCann's throw sails into center field, Castillo alertly advances to third. Unfortunately, on the next pitch, Reyes' ground ball up the middle -- slowed by the wet infield grass, no doubt -- is gobbled up and amounts to the second out of the inning. Four-five hitters Bay and Wright are unable to plate Castillo, and the Mets fail to capitalize on McCann's error.

After Reyes' failure to drive in Castillo, Joe Morgan criticizes the Mets' new No. 3 batter for not hitting the ball hard up the middle, and characterizes Reyes' at bat as a misstep. Morgan seems to think that the job of a No. 3 hitter is to work the count until he can either hit the ball hard through the infield, or hit the ball deep enough into the outfield for a sacrifice fly. I'm not trying to pick on Joe Morgan, but I think he and I aren't watching the same game.

It's pretty obvious (to me, at least), that the wet grass has helped both teams so far (remember Heyward's inning-ending double play just a few minutes before), and Reyes' ball, which ordinarily would have scooted through for an RBI single, just happened to not be good enough tonight.

If not for the weather, Castillo wouldn't have even been on third base, and might have even been caught stealing. Do you really think McCann would have thrown the ball into center field if it weren't raining?

Also, is there something special about the third spot in the order that dictates a player should be more patient? Moreso than the leadoff spot, even? Ugh, Morgan, you're killing me...

Fourth Inning

I was so caught up trying to articulate my frustration with Joe Morgan that I miss the entire top of the fourth inning. Noticing that the score was still 1-0 heading to commercial, I decide to celebrate Pelfrey's active streak (and cool off) by grabbing a soda and sticking my head in the freezer for a minute.

I get back to the action with one out in the bottom of the inning just in time to see the wet Citi Field grass take away another grounder up the middle. This time the victim is Jeff Francouer. By the time Braves shortstop Yunel Escobar gets to it, Frenchy's ball is almost in shallow right-center field, the batter safely at first.

Even if Escobar hadn't flubbed the transition from glove to hand (a bungle leading to a non-out), Escobar might have been too far away to throw out Francouer anyway, and the play is ruled a "hit." Escobar sure looked pretty stupid on a ball he normally wouldn't have been able to get to anyway, but that's about all the damage the Braves suffer, as Hanson shuts down Blanco and Pelfrey to end the fourth.

Fifth Inning
Martin Prado drives a ball past Francouer in right for a double to lead off, but Pelfrey mans up to fan Chipper on a mean splitter away, and K-Zone treats us viewers to a replay of Jones' flailing two-strike swing. Nice work, Pelfrey. I don't care if he's hurt, old, retired, or dead, it always feels like an accomplishment when the Mets make that bastard Chipper look human.

Midway through his next at bat (facing Brian McCann), Pelfrey crosses the 100-pitch mark for the night, before walking McCann and bringing pitching coach Dan Warthen to the mound for a conference. As Jon Miller notes, ten men have reached base against Pelfrey so far tonight, and even though none have scored against him, this should probably be his last frame.

The high wire dance continues as Pelfrey magically induces a 5-4-3 double play from Troy Glaus. Huzzah! It's officially on!

Streak Watch: 24 innings Completed, 35 Behind Orel (BO).

After the commercial, Orel deftly points out that expectations have changed quickly for Pelfrey; we're not just expecting his outings to last more than five innings, we're also expecting Pelfrey to pitch cleaner innings. I know what he's saying, but I also am expecting Pelfrey to pitch zero innings more tonight. An ESPN camera picks up a lefty warming up in the Mets bullpen, so hopefully this is it for Pelf for tonight.

Pagan makes a quiet out to lead off the inning, and Castillo strokes a single to right. Once again, with Reyes batting, Luis takes second base. Unfortunately, McCann doesn't field the ball well enough to throw the ball into center field this time, so Castillo has to stay at second for now.

As it turns out, Castillo doesn't even get to third base this inning. Reyes chases a Hanson curveball that looks like it may have tagged the dirt five inches in front of the plate (for some reason, I didn't watch the K-Zone replay with quite as much interest as L-Dub's flail-job...) and Bay skies one to Escobar for the third out.

Sixth Inning
Even at first glance, it's clear that Pelfrey's night is over. The new Mets pitcher is a dark skinned lefty, and no sooner does Raul Valdez throws his first pitch of the game than the rapidly increasing rainpour, which has caused puddles to gather around various patches of the infield, leads the umpiring crew to call for the tarp squad.

Dinner time...

Some ninety minutes later

The game hasn't been officially called yet, but it seems like it's all over, and a near-complete game for Pelfrey, who threw all the Mets pitches but one tonight.

Mets vs. Cardinals

2010-04-18T17:56:00.000-07:00

The Day After

Sunday Night Baseball's Mets-Cardinals matchup comes on the heels of a 20-inning contest. Without a doubt, my favorite thing about ballgames that go so ridiculously far into extra innings is that once a manager has used his entire bullpen, he has to get creative and put a position player on the mound in a desperate attempt to get outs.

Indeed, last night featured pitching performances from guys who aren't used to competing against major league hitters: Felipe Lopez, St. Louis' utility infielder, pitched a scoreless 18th; Joe Mather, the Cardinals outfielder, pitched two inning and was eventually sacked with the loss; and Fernando Nieve, the Mets setup man who sported an 8.44 ERA going into Saturday's game and whose poor effort in the series opener "earned" him the loss.

While it's nice the Mets were able to hang on for the win, the club's victory last night might end up hurting them in the medium/long term. Specifically, I'm afraid that the bullpen is being used too much. Last night the Mets offense wasted a fine performance by their one and only dependable pitcher, Johan Santana, who tossed seven scoreless frames, and in the process continued to tax a bullpen that has been used more than almost any other in the league.

Fun fact: through 11 games, the only NL team whose starting pitchers have thrown fewer innings than the Mets' starters is the Washington Nationals. Yikes.

It doesn't get any easier for the Mets anytime soon, as the team doesn't have a scheduled off-day until May 23. I'm not saying they should have forfeited or tried to lose last night, I'm just saying, maybe they should have let "Magic Man" Nieve stay in the ballgame until the Cards knocked him out of it, and keep the rest of the pen fresh for the weeks to come.

With that second-guessing of Jerry Manual out of the way, let's move on to tonight's presentation of Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN!

Pregame
Orel Hershiser points out that Adam Wainwright is the Cardinals' "Ace 1A" behind Chris Carpenter. To illustrate why Wainwright is an ace, Hershiser cites the tall righthander's innings pitchers total: "Out of a possible 18 innings pitched in his starts this season, Wainwright has pitched 15."

I get what Orel's saying, but that's a little deterministic, don't you think? I mean, would you say that Johan Santana pitched seven out of a possible nine innings last night? The starting pitcher doesn't have any control out of what happens once he leaves. Silly Orel.

First Inning
John Maine pitches to contact and the Cardinals make said contact, spraying fly balls all over the new Busch Stadium's outfield. Ryan Ludwick strokes a double to center, and after retiring Albert Pujols on another flyball to center field, Maine gives up a hit to Matt Holliday.

Fortunately, Holliday's knock is fielded by a charging Jeff Francouer, who fires a throw to home plate in time for Rod Barajas to tag out Ludwick, also charging.

Phew.

I think I'm okay with this pitch-to-contact approach form Maine, even though I'm terrified at the the thought of Pujols and Holliday making contact all day long.

Second Inning
Frank Catalanotto leads off the inning as the Mets' cleanup hitter, and Jeff Francouer follow with a walk. If these two facts aren't enough to signal the coming of the apocalypse, I'm not sure what are.

Through pluck, bloop, and error, the Mets pick up three runs, which is exactly one run more than they were able to scratch out in Saturday's 20-inning affair. You could certainly forgive both teams for failing to display their crispest ball, but the biggest boner of the inning was committed by Wainwright, who didn't even figure into last night's action, and whose attempt at nabbing Angel Pagan off first base ended up sailing into right field, allowing Gary Matthews, Jr. to scamper home to score the third Mets run of the inning.

In the bottom of the frame, John Maine struck out the first two Cardinals batters, including the "Black Sheep" Molina brother (as Bill Simmons has termed Yadier), who caught all twenty innings last night. If I owned Yadier in a fantasy league right now, I would find a way to roster another catcher for the upcoming week.

Once again, Maine gets himself into and out of a jam, striking out Wainwright after allowing Cardinal runners to reach first and third. Maine's been flirting with disaster so far tonight. He threw 28 pitches in this inning and is working hard to stay afloat. His luck can't last the whole game.

Third Inning

Thanks to ESPN, we get to relive the final at bat of the 2006 NLCS, a.k.a. Wainwright vs. Beltran. It's too bad Beltran is on the disabled list and thus not a participant in what has so far amounted to a mini-revenge session against Wainwright. At least his replacement in center field tonight, Angel Pagan (he of the second inning bloop), is doing his part to punish the Cards.

Alex Cora, David Wright, and Catalanotto go down in order (shocking, I know), and in the bottom half of the inning, Maine works the Cardinals hitters a little differently the second time through the order, playing hard to get and walking two batters in the process.

Many of Maine's pitchers are in the dirt; maybe he just doesn't have a feel for his full repertoire this early in the season, maybe he's just over-throwing. Whatever the cause, I continue to be worried about him. Rasmus just misses crushing Maine's first offering, and lines a ball hard to left for the third out of the inning. Manuel really needs Maine to give him at least five innings tonight to give the bullpen a rest (six seems out of the question at this point), and I just hope Maine can survive the test.

Fourth Inning
Wainwright seems to be settling into a nice rhythm, mixing in his good curveball and effortlessly delivering fastballs that dart into the strike zone with authority. In other words, he's pitching with a special level of confidence that comes from facing the Mets.

Adding possible injury to insult, Rod Barajas, the third batter in the inning, is hit by a pitch on his wrist but in an attempt to avoid getting struck turns around for an awkward swinging third strike, and starts toward first base with apparent tears in his eyes, apparently choosing to ignore the home plate umpire's "strike three" signal.

Before the start of the bottom of the fourth, ESPN broadcasters Jon Miller and Joe Morgan grill Mets manager Jerry Manuel about who will be available out of the Mets bullpen tonight. Manuel indicates that only a few of the regular arms (Igarashi, Feliciano, and Takahashi) might be called into battle tonight, "unless we have a chance to win." There ya go, Jerry! Nice confidence!

Meanwhile, John Maine's struggles continue. After issuing a walk to the pitcher (Wainwright), Maine receives a visiting from Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen, while Manuel gets the bullpen ready for the coming implosion. Somehow, Maine pitches out of trouble once again, but something tells me this isn't ending well.

Fifth Inning
Leading off the inning, Pagan gets his second hit of the game and is bunted to second by Maine. Wainwright issues a walk to the apparently fearsome Alex Cora and, facing David Wright with two men aboard, two strikes, and two out, pulls the string on an awesome curve that has Wright bending away in fear, the same pitch (as Jon Miller adroitly notes) that ended the Mets postseason run in 2006. Ugh.

Maine falls behind 3-0 on number two hitter Ryan Ludwick to start the inning before firing off two strikes and getting Ludwick to foul off a couple of offerings. Meanwhile, the ESPN announcers replay Maine's mound conversation with Warthen from last inning, with Maine imploring, "I am throwing my fastball!"

Okay, but his fastball is topping out at 87 MPH right now and he's throwing it way high to Ludwick, which means he's out of gas. After inevitably walking Ludwick, Maine gets Pujols to fly out on the first pitch but then gives up a single up the middle to cleanup hitter Matt Holliday.

This is the first Cardinal groundball of the game that I can remember, which is only appropriate because Maine reverts to his flyball-inducing ways in the next at bat by surrendering a game-tying homerun on a fastball thrown right down the pipe to Colby Rasmus, who had hit Maine hard in the previous at bat.

Maine mercifully retires the next two batters on flyballs to the outfield, but the damage has been done. Great. We got our five innings out of him. Blech.

Eighth Inning
(We skip ahead here, as I had to take an extended break from this game for dinner and a movie with the lady. We pick it up after two relatively uneventful innings, the score still 3-3).

Wainwright fans Jose Reyes and quickly retires Alex Cora (shocker, I know) before getting ahead of David Wright 0-2. Wright doesn't bite on a few superb curveballs by Wainwright but ultimately goes down swinging to end the inning.

Matt Stoner (?) faces the weak side of the Cards' lineup to start off the bottom of the eighth, his third inning of the ballgame. Stoner shuts down shortstop Brendan Ryan but Wainwright, batting for himself in the bottom of the 8th inning (!) strokes a double down the left field line with one out, and Manuel summons the veteran Pedro Feliciano to try to stymie the home offense.

Feliciano battles pinch hitter Felipe Lopez and finally strikes him out on eight pitches for the second out of the inning. Pedro has been with the big league club since 2002, longer than any current Met. In terms of longevity, he is the Albert Pujols of the Mets. No, he's never won an MVP or appeared in an All Star Game, but Feliciano has been a steady, reliable member of the Mets' relief corps for nearly a decade, and while he's a long way from having his uniform number retired by the team, I trust him more than any Mets reliever at this point.

Naturally, Manuel yanks Feliciano. Pedro's replacement, Ryota Igarashi, promptly serves up a first-pitch fastball to Ryan Ludwick, who plates the winning run on a deep fly to left center field. Cardinals win. Ugh.

Bold Prediction: Don't Stop Blevins

2010-04-09T06:39:00.000-07:00

Today's Bold Prediction:
Jerry Blevins will not walk any batters in Oakland's weekend series against the Angels.

The A's lefty curveballer walked at least one Mariner batter in each of his three appearances this week, and as a result leads all ML relievers in free passes.

While it's no guarantee that Blevins will even see action this weekend, I think he will reign in it if his number does get called.

Yesterday's Bold Prediction:
"The starting pitchers in today's Reds-Cardinals game will have more combined hits, runs, and RBI than the first basemen in the starting lineup."

It was quite an auspicious start to the 2010 season for Bronson Arroyo. Not only did the Reds right-hander knock in a run with his fifth inning bloop single, but he also notched the 1,000th strikeout of his ML career.

Perhaps more pertinent to my prediction, even though Arroyo kept the great Albert Pujols at bay, unfortunately the Reds' own Joey Votto singled twice in the game, so the hitters pushed the pitchers at two combined H/R/RBI total.

2010 Bold Prediction Record: 1-1

Bold Prediction: Offense out of the Nine-hole

2010-04-08T07:43:00.000-07:00

Today's Bold Prediction:

The starting pitchers in today's Reds-Cardinals game will have more combined hits, runs, and RBI than the first basemen in the starting lineup.

Okay, so this may be a little far-fetched; it's no secret St. Louis Cardinals will have the most special hitter on the planet in the lineup today, and Joey Votto's no slouch either.

But for some reason I think Bronson Arroyo (who homered in his first two starts in 2006) and Brad Penny (who batted over .150 in four of the last five seasons) could really shine in today's game at the Great American Ball Park.

Yesterday's Bold Prediction:
Early on in the season, it's typical to see a manager go to the bullpen after five or six innings regardless of how well the starting pitcher may be doing. There are a few reasons for this. in order to avoid risking injury, it's important not to push a hurler too much as he works on building strength. Also, managers want to give their relief pitchers work, since they need to experience regular live action in order to get a feel for their craft.

Through Day 3 of the baseball season, no starting pitcher had pitcher more than seven innings. I thought that would change yesterday, and it did. In fact, two pitchers recorded at least 22 outs: Luke Hochevar of the Royals (23) and Matt Garza (24). Hochevar was very efficient with his pitches, needing only 89 to get through his workload, while Garza's 114 pitches represent the highest pitch count of any starter in this young season.

2010 Bold Prediction Record: 1-0

Somos Numero Uno!

2010-04-07T11:58:00.000-07:00

Thanks to my mom for sharing this article with me. It looks like the Mets opened the season with more foreign-born players than any other team. Cool!

I'm reminded of the neat infographic at Flip Flop Fly Ball charting the growth of the Latin American and Asian population within MLB (and the unsurprising death of the European population).

Random thoughts:

Both the NY Times article and Craig Robinson's timeline show that Dominican-born players outnumber any other international constituency which reminds me just how much I enjoyed the film Sugar, which you don't have to be a baseball fan to enjoy. I'd say the film was a cross between Maria Full of Grace and The Scout. But, you know, way better than that sounds.

I'm glad that the Mets have a Canadian on the team. Hopefully the 2010 version of the Mets will be a nicer, friendlier version of the Mets. I plan to celebrate Bay's first homerun as a Met with a Molson, and maybe a hug.

The NY Times article also notes, "In four of the past five years, the Mets have led the majors with with the most players born elsewhere." I'm willing to bet that the Mets have also led the major with the most injured players born elsewhere, or anywhere, for that matter...

Bold Prediction: Over 21

2010-04-07T08:22:00.000-07:00

Here we are, three days into the young season, and no pitcher has recorded more than 21 outs in a game. Eight hurlers have pitched exactly seven innings. They are: Dallas Braden, Mark Buehrle, Scott Feldman, Yovani Gallardo, Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, and Shawn Marcum.

My bold prediction for today is that at least one pitcher will record more than 21 outs. That's right folks, you heard it hear first: At the end of the day we will have a new innings pitched leader in Major League Baseball!

ZWL Tracker: 1-0

2010-04-07T08:19:00.000-07:00

One game into the 2010 season, Zito sports a 1-0 record no matter how you slice it, which is good, because most fans still aren't hip to the Zito Win method of performance evaluation. The Giants and their fans might expect Zito to toss six innings of one-run ball every time out, but if last night's success proves to be an aberration, I'll be tracking his ZWL record all season long in this space, and everyone is welcome to enjoy this revisionist exercise along with me!

Introducing The Zito Win

2010-04-06T16:43:00.000-07:00

Sometime during the 2008 season, my friend Nick and I were one of many thousands of Bay Area baseball fans horrified, violated, and generally non-plussed by the downright pathetic performance of Giants pitcher Barry Zito.

No matter where you turned, Zito jokes abounded, and with good reason: during a twenty-game stretch the previous season, the lefty had won only three games, and was even relegated to the bullpen one time (albeit, only for an inning). As frustrated as Giants fans had become during the Zito Experience, each poor outing he turned in led to a fresh layer of disappointment. Die-hards cursed the man and even casual fans seemed to pick up on the stench of disaster that accompanied every Zito start.

Meanwhile, more realistic fans like me and Nick began to realize that it was no longer fair to expect Zito to rediscover the magic that led to his then-record $126 million, seven-year payout. The Good Zito wasn't coming back, and if we were going to survive the remaining five-plus years on Bad Zito's contract without suffering massive cranial leakage, we all needed to shift our already-low expectations.

One night at AT&T Park, Nick and I observed the train wreck in person. Trying to scavenge for something constructive, we brainstormed various ways we could help salvage Zito's career by looking at the results of his "performance" from a non-traditional viewpoint. Much in the same that way that a rehabbing ace pitches against collegiate or low-minors batters to build up strength and confidence on his path to recovery, even a pitcher barely hanging on to his job like Zito will look like an All-Star if we lower the bar sufficiently.

Like Alexander Cartwright and Bill James before us, that night we invented the Zito Win.

When trying to evaluate a starting pitcher's success rate, it's not uncommon to look at his win-loss record. It's not a perfect metric by any means, but in Zito's case, through his first season and a half, his W-L record stood at 14-25. This was a terrible record, and certainly reflective of Zito's dismal performance, but somehow it just didn't seem to do him justice, and here's why:

If you listen to baseball broadcasts on TV or on the radio, you'll hear the color commentator celebrate a pitcher because his team has a high winning percentage in games started by that pitcher --- "He gives his team a chance to win every time he goes out." Well, through 2007 and the first part of 2008, Barry Zito certainly hadn't given the Giants a chance to win every night, but when the Giants did win, he must had something to do with it, right?

How to earn a Zito Win, Method #1:
If your team wins and you were the starter, you get the win.

Another expression we've all heard baseball announcers say is that a pitcher's done his job if he "keeps his team in the game." Different teams score different amount of runs, and the Quality Start metric tracks a pitcher's ability to complete six innings while allowing three runs or fewer. Nick and I decided that Zito needed a little more rope than that, though, because he'd been struggling so much. Besides, "quality" isn't an adjective, anyway, so we felt it was okay to re-write the definition a little bit:

How to earn a Zito Win, Method #2:
If you pitch at least give innings, and give up no more than five runs, you get the win.

Barry Zito may not have been performing up to the All-Star standards the Giants were paying him to, but by our Zito Win method, he had a real chance to succeed game in, game out. We figured that if Zito heard about this metric he might feel good about himself and start to turn things around. Maybe he heard us that night, and maybe he didn't. But one thing's for sure: Barry Zito has one heck of a ZW-L record:

	2007	2008	2009	Total
Original WL	11-13	10-17	10-13	31-43
Zito WL	24-9	25-7	27-6	76-22

Even with my terrible HTML layout skills, it's plain to see that we're looking at a pretty special few seasons as as long as we're measuring Zito this way. All of the team's wins became Zito Wins, and many of the other games that were originally no-decisions or losses become Zito Wins as well because of the pitcher's sub-9.00 ERA, or ZERA.

Tonight Barry Zito makes his first start of the season for the Giants, against an Astros lineup that doesn't have a lot of thunder. I think I smell a Zito Win.

Yanks vs. Red Sox, Game 1

2010-04-04T16:32:00.000-07:00

Pre-Game Notes:

ESPN's pre-game team for the Yanks-Red Sox opening night broadcast: Karl Ravech, Bobby Valentine, John Kruk, Nomar Garciaparra, and... Curt Schilling.

After narrating a series of Curt-sucking highlighting, Ravech asks Schilling if he'd rather be on the field than behind the mic and Schilling coldly shoots him down: "I have no desire to put that uniform on right now." Geez Curt, was it really that bad? Can you at least pretend that it gave you joy to be a major leaguer?

For what seems like an eternity, Schilling explains the importance of throwing first-pitch strikes and getting ahead of the hitter. Schilling reels off statistic after statistic after statistic, tripping over his own words and completely losing 80% of ESPN's audience in the process. If Schilling is supposed to be the missing piece of the broadcast team that makes us forget Peter Gammons is gone, it isn't working.

Inexplicably, Dr. Dre and Lebron James join Ravech on the field to plus Beats by Dre and talk about the importance of music for professional athletes. Ravech to LeBron: "Are you naked as an athlete without music in your ear?" Good thing Greg Oden wasn't in town. That would have been awkward.

Game Notes:

Orel Hershiser did well as the third man in the booth alongside Jon Miller and Joe Morgan. He wasn't afraid to criticize either the players --- after Granderson's homerun: "Beckett is getting lulled to sleep thinking his fastball is better than it is." Ouch. --- or the umpires --- "Joe West's strike zone can be the size of a postage stamp." --- and I felt I really learned something by listening to Orel.

Kevin Youkilis got the first Jewish hit of the season, as well as the first Jewish run of the season. If we set the over/under on number of Jewish All Stars this year at 1.5, I'm taking the over. Youkilis and Ryan Braun are money in the bank

My girlfriend Courtlyn, who is not a baseball fan, on Derek Jeter's squinty-eyed approach at the playe: "This guy looks stoned"

Courtlyn on J.D. Drew: "I used to really like the name 'Drew' for a girl, and Sophie."

Something I want to verify by reading blogs today: According to Jon Morgan, Mike Lowell got the biggest ovation from any player not in the starting lineup.

Keeping Them Honest: Mitch Willians

2010-04-04T16:11:00.000-07:00

On the MLB Network's "30 Clubs in 30 Days" preview show about the Phillies, the Wild Thing proclaimed that new Philly second baseman Placido Polanco is "the best two-hole hitter in the game," and projected that when Polanco comes to the plate and Jimmy Rollins is on first base, Rollins will end up in scoring position 80 percent of the time.

Let's see how that works out.

Hard Times in April for Hardy

2009-04-23T17:59:00.000-07:00

From Ben Shpigel's Monday notes on NYT:

There was nothing particularly unique about Luis Castillo’s winning hit Friday night in a 5-4 victory over the Brewers: (...) He bolted down the first-base line, his legs churning, his arms pumping, and beat J. J. Hardy’s throw by a step, allowing Carlos Delgado to score the winning run.

Shpigel offers this event as evidence of Castillo's resurgence since re-dedicating himself through intensive off-season workouts, and I'm not here to disagree that the Mets' second baseman of the present (and foreseeable future) certainly seems to be a fitter, happier version than we've grown used to.

But after watching the Mets-Brewers series finale at Citi Field -- a contest lost by the Mets, unfortunately -- it was hard to ignore the ways in which Milwaukee's shortstop of the present (and foreseeable future) must avoid struggling in the field in order to stave off concerns about his struggles at the plate in the early going.

To review Hardy's at bats in Sunday's game:

1st inning, bases loaded, one out. Hardy strikes out swinging.
3rd inning, bases empty, two outs. Hardy grounds out to 3rd on second pitch of AB.
6th inning, bases empty, no outs. Hardy fouls out on second pitch of AB.
8th inning, bases empty, one out. Hardy takes four pitches and pops out to 1b.

I know, I know, only four at bats.

But as of now, Hardy ranks 194th out of 197 qualified MLB hitters in batting average (8-for-54; .148) and 184th in OPS, which is buoyed by virtue of his three base hits which have cleared the fence.

The good news is, Hardy has been mostly reliable with the glove so far, which has helped Milwaukee achieve the 6th best UZR at the shortstop position thus far.

Hardy, along with Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and Yovani Gollardo, exemplifies the team's recent successful track record of drafting and development to provide the big league club with major league talent. Unfortunately for Hardy, the Brew Crew seem to have a nearly-ready SS replacement in Alcides Escobar, who is currently plying his trade in the Pacific Coast League and whose acumen with the glove could ostensibly inspire a call-up if he starts to hit, and the Brewers find a willing trade partner for their 26 year-old shortstop.

Hardy's career splits suggest that things will only improve at the plate, but if they don't, I wouldn't be surprised if Escobar is running the show by the trading deadline.

Fernando Tatis chases Gibson

2009-04-20T20:05:00.000-07:00

From Baseball Musings, the five active players who have the most active career HRs without a walkoff job:

Ty Wigginton - 110
Aaron Rowand - 108
Fernando Tatis - 103
Garrett Atkins - 91
Xavier Nady - 87

I can't help but notice that three of these players (Wiggy, Tatis, Nady) have logged time for the Mets...

Also, it surprises me that Tatis only has 103 career dingers, given that his sole claim to fame is related to the long ball. That said, his only standout season was the 1999 campaign, in which he cleared 34 balls over the wall. More recently (since 2002) Tatis has registered just 511 at bats, so it's not like he's had ample opportunity to build on his totals.

The last-minute surprise addition of Gary Sheffield and today's signing of Wily Mo Pena could clog up the Mets outfield reserve scene a little bit, but Fernando should still have plenty of chances to get that elusive walk-off homerun in 2009. He has been used as a pinch hitter three times this season and over the weekend made his first career start at second base to spell Luis Castillo, both of which seem to indicate Jerry Manuel is determined to work Tatis into the lineup.

I've never been terribly enthusiastic about Tatis' presence on the Mets roster. Sure, you could do a lot worse for a 4th outfielder -- just look at what the Giants were getting out of Dave Roberts the last couple of years -- and he's probably a little better than Endy Chavez at the plate, or Jeremy Reed, or Angel Pagan, for that matter. It's just hard to get excited about Fernando Freakin' Tatis, ya know?

It's anybody's guess how often and in what situations Tatis will continue to see action this season, especially given the plethora of other options on hand. But a walk-off homerun is an exciting enough event to hope for, and if nothing else, I now have a reason to hope Tatis is the next one to deliver one for the Mets.

Hard to live down

2009-04-19T09:18:00.000-07:00

From today's THT Daily Extremes, on how Milton Bradley's incipient two-game suspension may affect
fantasy value:

He will continue to play until an appeal is heard, if healthy, of course.

Redding aboard?

2009-01-10T11:23:00.000-08:00

My gut reaction when I saw that the Mets were close to a deal with Tim Redding was disappointment tempered with fond remembrance. Either of the final two spots of the Mets rotation would seem to be open for Redding, who reached career highs in starts, innings and strikeouts as the only double-digit winner for the cross-division Nationals in 2008, and who should be perfectly capable of eating innings for the boys in orange and blue in 2009.

Although he racked up a 10-11 record for a team that finished 43 games under .500, Redding's other numbers last season were fairly unimpressive. His 110 runs allowed were the fifth most of any pitcher in the National League, so his bloated win total is pretty clearly a result of having received the ninth best run support among NL pitchers. Scoring runs doesn't figure to be a big problem for the Mets, so I'm not overly concerned about what will happen on the nights Redding starts.

Still, even though signing Redding shouldn't financially restrict Omar Minaya from chasing bigger fish like Andy Pettitte, Derek Lowe, or the Mets' own unsigned free agent starters (Oliver Perez and Pedro Martinez), Minaya's acquisition of talent that would seem to slot in behind, rather than in front of projected No. 3 starter Mike Pelfrey is tough to digest.

On one hand, I don't expect Redding to negatively impact my favorite team's fortunes in 2009 all that much because I don't even really expect him to be in the rotation for length of the season. Redding's salary will reportedly be $2.5 million and if his performance (or lack thereof) warrants it, the Mets can cut ties with Redding for a relatively reasonable payoff.

Even if he stays in the rotation for the whole year, I won't be too upset. Steve Trachsel held tenure with the Mets for six seasons and even though he seemed to be on the wrong side of a quality start most nights, his consistently mediocre performance was something to look forward to. In October 2006, I watched in a sold-out Dodger Stadium as Trachsel went inning for inning with Greg Maddux and kept the Mets in the game long enough for the Mets to break through to the Dodgers pen.

The Mets went on to win that game and advanced to the NLCS, where Trachsel was ineffective against the Cardinals, and the Mets lost the series in seven games. The Mets didn't bring Trachsel back in 2007, and I don't think he was missed by most fans, but my memories of Trachsel are mostly positive. He was never brilliant, but it wasn't his fault that he lacked talent. He took the ball when it was his turn, and never complained or lacked effort.

Two years of the Barry Zito era in San Francisco have been ample reminder that making long-term commitments can hamstring a GM's roster flexibility. A three- or four-year deal, which is what Scott Boras is seeking for Lowe and Perez, would provide either starter an opportunity to carry the Mets to a pennant, but either contract would also cost the team significantly more cash and could lead to a distastrous fallout should performance fall short of expectations.

Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown, and more recently Zito and Adrian Beltre are examples of players whose additions cost their teams millions of dollars but perhaps more costly was the hope lost among fans of the Dodgers, Yankees, Giants and Mariners who watched these players fail to live up to the hype. Mets fans remember the recent signings of Martinez and Billy Wagner and couldn't be blamed for having muted optimism as Frankie Rodriguez comes to town as the newest hired gun.

It was because Martinez and Orlando Hernandez were injured, after all, that Trachsel's number was called in Game 3 of the NLDS. Whereas the two talented, former World Series winning aces were sidelined for the Mets only postseason activity of the last eight years, slow and steady Steve Trachsel was ready when his number was called. The pricier, flashier pitchers that Minaya savors are still out there for the chasing, but there are no guarantees that Lowe will remain subtly effective, or that Perez can ever deliver on his potential.

Maybe Tim Redding will be the No. 4 starter the Mets never knew they needed, and if they're wrong, $2.5 million won't be too tough to stomach, I guess.

Teixeira Helps, But Yanks Need More Bats

2008-12-29T17:47:00.000-08:00

It's late December, and the Yankees are doing the Yankee thing. Last week the Bombers locked up free agent prize Mark Teixeira after securing the fearsome lefty-righty combination of C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

Sabathia was the best-known (if not the best) free agent pitcher available for hire -- winning a Cy Young Award and then going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA as a mid-season acquisition while pushing your new team to its first playoffs in 26 years tends to raise one's profile -- and Burnett is an intriguing commodity in his own right, having thrown a no-hitter in 2001 but toiling in relative obscurity in Miami and Toronto since coming into the league. The general perception seems to be that Burnett is a flaky, all-or-nothing type of performer, but it's difficult to ignore his recent production, as he fanned 231 batters in 2008, the third highest total in MLB, trailing only his new teammate Sabathia and the Giants' young flamethrower, Tim Lincecum.

Signing them both cost the Yankees over $240 million, and for the most successful and prolific franchise in the history of American professional sports, it's just another offseason. Depending on where one stands on the Yankees, the signings of Sabathia and Burnett were either tittilating or repulsive. It is expected by both fans and detractors that the Yankees will constantly re-invent by loading up on free agent offerings. It's happened recently with Mike Mussina, Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Gary Sheffield, and Hideki Matsui, to cite just a few examples.

Even (and perhaps especially) in this economic climate, the Yankees prefer and are well suited to chase free agent talent rather than wait for internal assets to develop. Yankee fans and players embrace a culture of must-win baseball, and after missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993, there's no time like the present to loosen the purse strings if it helps usher in a new era of supremacy. The Yankees did not become a force to be reckoned with on and away from the baseball diamond by standing pat. They spend money to make money, and what better way to fill seats at their new, team-financed stadium than by bringing in fresh talent?

Joe Girardi certainly won't mind heading to Spring Training with perhaps just one rotation spot to fill. In the wake of Mussina's retirement and given Andy Pettitte's weird quasi-holdout situation, adding Sabathia and Burnett will alleviate some pressure for younger Yankee starters Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, who could slot in as the No. 4 and 5 options behind the new signees and Chien-Ming Wang. It's worth noting, though, that even the revered Wang (whose record stands, remarkably, 34 games over .500 after only 97 big-league appearances) will be watched closely in his first season after foot surgery. Picking up a pair of aces may well propel them to the playoffs sooner rather than later, but bolstering their offensive output will be particularly crucial for the Yankees in 2009 and beyond, and adding Teixeira is (or should be) just the first piece of the puzzle.

Landing Teixeira was no accident. The 28 year-old first baseman is represented by that fabled wrangler of moolah, Superagent Scott Boras, and the Yankees are one of the few teams that can afford his cosmic salary demands ($180 million). Carrying the Boras brand usually gets a player paid, and in Teixeira's case it's a testimony to both his talent and his track record. After winning the Dick Howser Trophy as the top college ballplayer in 2001, Teixeria was the fifth overall draft choice that same year, and might have been drafted even higher if the Phillies hadn't been burned previously by one of Boras' other draftees (read the amusing summary here on Wikipedia). Teixeira broke into the bigs with Texas two years later and the modest successes achieved in his rookie campaign (60 extra-base hits, .811 OPS in 146 games played) helped the Rangers feel comfortable cutting ties with aging and expensive Rafal Palmeiro, along with their more infamous Boras property, Alex Rodriguez.

Teixeira has continued to excel, if inconspicuously, racking up two Gold Glove Awards and producing at least 30 homeruns and 100 RBI in every season since. The case could be made that he's a perfect fit for the Yankees, who have proven themselves quite deft at acquiring Boras' clients and working to keep them comfortable (A-Rod, Johnny Damon and Teixeria are the big names printed on pinstriped jerseys, but Xavier Nady and Kennedy tithe to Boras as well). Because he performs consistently and quietly, Teixeira projects to be a more bankable and certainly less notorious acquisition than other recent Yankee free agent splashes like Pavano and Giambi. No matter how you slice it, Teixeira was quite a cherry on top of a winter that has already been sweet to Yankees fans.

The spotlight will definitely be on Teixeira, who will be expected to provide lineup protection for A-Rod as the two players play out the rest of their contracts in pinstripes. Gone is Giambi, gone is Bobby Abreu, and after a season in which Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter showed their age and Robinson Cano's early struggles raised eyebrows, who knows where else the runs will come from in 2009? Nick Swisher could bounce back from an uninspiring stint with the White Sox, and Matsui can be counted on for .290-15-80 if he's healthy, but the Boras Boys will need some help if the Yankees are to score runs for their new hired guns.

Should the Yankees find themselves in third place after, say, 50 games, don't be surprised if they go hard after Magglio Ordonez or Matt Holliday to build up a new Murderer's Row. Both sluggers will be free agents after the season (as will be the Angels' Vlad Guerrero), and the Rockies and Tigers may be eager to deal in order to get some type of compensation for their departure.

Such bold moves might have to wait until the winter if the teams invovled can't strike a deal, but that shouldn't stop the Bombers from opening up the bank. After all, it's the Yankee way.

Popping the Question: who -- or what -- is an MVP candidate?

2006-08-29T11:46:00.000-07:00

As the season enters its final month, predicting baseball's playoff teams is a tricky exercise. Following the pennant races requires daily scoreboard watching and magic number recalculation. This is especially true in the National League, where every club except Washington, Chicago and Pittsburgh is within five games of the Wild Card spot.

Amid constant realignment of standings, flurries of last-second waiver deals and potentially devastating injuries, there is still so much baseball left that the process of forecasting October matchups may seem a trifling matter, although knowing this doesn't stop us from staying up late at night, wondering if Josh Rabe will get postseason at bats against lefties, and how Jeff Weaver might figure into the Cards' playoff rotation, for example.

No less daunting a challenge, and thus all the more ripe for debate, is the task of identifying the player in each league who is deserving of the MVP award.

Ah, the Most Valuable Player. Just typing the words brings frustration. The award's winner must perform at a level of superlative excellence, yet the methods for identifying excellent performance are superlatively undefined. Must he come from a playoff team? Has he driven in lots of runs? Produced without lineup protection? Does he dazzle in the field? Can he raise his game against rival teams? How clutch is he? To get to the heart of the MVP debate, we must decide what qualities are important in a candidate, and then we can attempt to quantify these qualifications.

Of course, this is easier said than done.

Consider the phrase in whole: Most Valuable Player. Not a single word of the three clarifies our expectation of who should be among those discussed as candidates. After all, what constitutes a "player?" Does this designation apply only to fielders who "play," or do "players" designated as hitters fit the bill? What about pitchers? Are they not "players?" Before we can differentiate among different types of "value," gauge their varying capacities to be measured, and extrapolate a ranking of these metrics, arguments for who is eligible as a "player" stand to complicate the discussion.

Just as the Wild Card has impacted the dynamics of September (and October) baseball, discourse on the MVP award has shifted accordingly. Over the coming days and weeks, I will study the threads of logic and preference that have produced the MVP finalists of the last dozen seasons. By focusing on the top end of each ballot, I hope to determine what qualities are favored in the selection of certain candidates over others as most valuable. My findings will be based on data available at Baseball-Reference.com and Retrosheet.org, and other sources, as noted.

(Note: While it may be difficult, I will try to avoid treating the voting bloc of the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) as a monolithic entity, and parse the behavior of its members into distinct categories as best I can -- with the data available. Any reader who is able to provide me with links or information about confirmed, actual complete MVP ballots as submitted by BBWAA members would be extremely helpful, as my own research efforts to collect such data have produced few successes.)

Early Surprises in a Seesaw Season

2006-05-11T21:50:00.000-07:00

Bad luck and good luck (usually) battle to put a stamp on a season’s worth of box scores. For instance, pointing to the Washington Nationals’ outstanding record in one-run games was a popular explanation for the team’s early dominance last season. Sure enough, the Nats’ luck evened out as their fluky run of close victories sharply reversed course on July 7. Come playoff-time, Washington’s first-half success was but a memory, as Frank Robinson’s diaspora of the diamond tumbled its way to an 81-81 record that was almost comedic in its exactness. (It could be argued that the team’s meteoric first-half play carried more weight than its collapse, following the simplistic assumption that the winning ways helped spread excitement and goodwill throughout the D.C. area, and made feasible the notion of a publicly-funded stadium. In this way, Major League Baseball earned some much-needed political capital in the nation’s capital despite a rather “blah” introduction.)

The idea that the law of averages will catch up with a streaking ball club looms large when attempting to evaluate a team’s record just 35 games in. However, while it is often said that a win is a win – each game counts just as much in the standings, no matter when it is played – translating that idea to the realm of individual performance does not always compute. Fact is, nobody wants to get off to a rough start, whether a team or a player, but this is particularly true of career role players, and of players who have not yet cashed in on free agency. Just as the Nationals’ streakiness was the somewhat inevitable consequence of playing a 162 game-season, every hitter will experience ups and downs, but the timing of a hot start, combined with other factors, goes a long way toward alleviating concerns that a player may never make it in the show.

I’m not suggesting we overlook the frustrations and pressure that exist for struggling veterans, too. There is nothing fun about watching former All-Stars Edgardo Alfonzo and Bernie Williams play their way to the bench, and far be it from me to question their desire as competitors. It’s consoling to know, however, that these guys can look back and remember when, rather than wondering what if. Players of their stature can fall back on a pile of money to cushion the blow of a disappointing start. Does anybody honestly think Adrian Beltré has felt that much pressure since he got paid by Seattle? It isn’t very difficult to imagine Esmerelda, the cab driver from Pulp Fiction, driving Adrian home from the ballpark after another Mariners loss. Through a heavy accent, Esmerelda would curiously ask, “How does it feel to keelll a baseball team?” Adrian, of course, would answer with a knowing sigh, “I don’t feel the least bit bad about it.” Despite his modest six-game hitting streak, which has lifted his average to the ugh-ly mark of.221, Beltré seems a longshot to escape enshrinement in the Darin Erstad Hall of Veterans Who Became Multimillionaires Because of Unsustainable Breakout Seasons, where fans will be able to admire his plaque alongside those belonging to Jon Garland and Javy Lopez. But I digress.

I have identified some players whose early-season successes typify the excitement and confusion inherent in trying to understand five weeks’ worth of data, let alone prognosticating the unforeseen. My choice of subjects is arbitrary and incomplete – I might well have discussed Alexis Rios, Xavier Nady or Austin Kearns, to name a few. Nobody I know predicted this level of supremacy for these (mostly) unproven hitters; this is what they have in common. Each is on his way to having a fine season, and each needed to have this type of success for the sake of establishing himself as a player of true major-league caliber.

Perhaps because he appeared (and appears) the least likely of the group to betray all previous levels of performance, perhaps because his name is alliterative, I have written mostly about the Indians’ Ben Broussard. To the extent that it is possible, let’s try to get a more accurate read on his batting numbers compiled as of May 9, and see what jumps out.

Ben Broussard: First Base, Cleveland Indians; Age 29 - 465 Career games
Early returns: .395 batting average; 5 homeruns; 22 runs batted in
Projected 2006 totals: .395-25-111
Previous career highs (minimum 100 ABs): .275 avg. (’04); 19 HR (’05); 82 RBI (’04)

Big Ben has settled nicely into his role as the No. 6 hitter in Eric Wedge’s lineup after a 2005 season in which he oscillated from the three-hole to the seven-spot. The left-handed member of Cleveland’s first base platoon, Broussard provides adequate protection for Travis Hafner and Victor Martínez and is benefiting from seeing opposing pitchers work the lefty and switch-hitter (respectively) in front of him. Until this year, I tended to prematurely historicize Broussard as a weaker descendent of Jim Thome, Richie Sexson and Russell Branyan – all former Indians sluggers in the Three True Outcomes mold – even though Broussard never did walk much, or hit all that many homeruns for that matter. I’m not sure what to make of this, I just felt like sharing my prejudice.

Anyway, Broussard broke through in a big way during a three-game series against the Red Sox, when he was 7-for-9 with three taters and 10 ribbies, including 8 RBI on April 27. The Boston series was a keen example of how quickly a player’s batting line can turn around at this stage of the season, but catching fire early is more important than it may seem for Broussard. The Indians are eagerly grooming Ryan Garko as their first baseman of the future, with Michael Aubrey waiting in the wings.

It may be naïve to suggest that Broussard, or any major leaguer, is motivated by such things, and I am wary of putting too much stock in Broussard’s quick start, partially because his history as a streaky performer is difficult to ignore. The role of luck is obvious when considering Broussard’s home/road splits: through Monday’s games, his numbers at Jacobs Field are staggering (.513 avg., .548 obp., .974 slg.), but on the road he has performed like a slightly better version of Marlon Byrd (.298/.340/.365). He isn’t usually asked to face lefties, against whom he is hitting a paltry .125 with six punchouts in 16 tries, compared to 32-for-70 (.457) with 22 RBI against right-handers.

There’s not much here to suggest that 2006 might be the Year of Ben Broussard any more than it might be the Year of Ron Belliard, or it might be the Year of Eduardo Pérez. My point, of course, it that if we assume he stays in the sixth spot of the order, a full season of Broussard at his peak realistically could net the Indians something like 25 homeruns and 111 RBI, and wouldn’t that be wonderful? Sure, there will be regression in Broussard’s batting average, which is currently 129 points better than his career line and may fall below .300 by month’s end. On the other hand, it’s not as though much of anything was expected out of him, beyond a slight improvement over his 2005 OPS of .770, which ranked 11^th out of 15 AL first basemen who totaled at least 400 plate appearances last season. Broussard, whose number of at bats has increased every year since his 2002 debut, is a classic late-bloomer, a guy who hung around long enough to finally become useful. Allow me to boldly predict that you and I are witnessing the beginnings of what will be his career year. How glorious the bloom, dear friends, we shall have to wait and see.

Other April/May Surprises:
(Stats are through games Wednesday, May 11, 2006)

Casey Blake: Left Field, Cleveland Indians; Age 32 - 533 Career games
Early Returns: .368-4-24
Projected 2006 totals: .368-19-111
Previous career highs: .271 avg., 28 HR, 88 RBI (all in ’04)

Admittedly, it might be a bit of a stretch to think of Blake as an unproven player; given his age and résumé – he is a three-time draft pick, a three-time waiver claimee, a two-time Minnesota Twin with a .779 lifetime OPS – nobody could be blamed for holding fast to her conception of Blake as nothing more than a career fourth-outfielder who happens to play for a contender in the American League Central. In case you’re wondering: No, I don’t mind if it’s obvious that I’m making excuses for my antipathy toward mighty Casey and his unseemly .368 batting average, which is second-highest in the bigs and OBVIOUSLY can’t last.

There is a silver lining in my cloud of pessimism, which is that you can say what you will about homeruns being commonplace and having too much impact on slowing the modern game, but dingers are still the best measurable outcome of an at bat we can think of, and the records show that Casey Blake has hit more of them (72) since 2003 than any Cleveland hitter not named Pronk. His ability to do this, and stay healthy (he has missed just 37 in that span) make him about as bankable a player as can be found. There’s just not much available for withdrawal.

Joe Crede: Third Base, Chicago White Sox; Age 28 - 536 Career games
Early returns: .319-7-25
Projected 2006 totals: .319-34-123
Previous career highs: .285 avg. (’02); 22 HR (’05); 75 RBI (’03)

Okay, so maybe Crede wasn’t exactly fighting for a roster spot. It would have taken a lot for or Pablo OzunaAlex Cintron to supplant one of Chicago’s postseason heroes, but with the young Josh Fields doing quite nicely in his first tour of the International League, Crede’s huge strides at the plate so far have likely spared GM Kenny Williams the potentially difficult decision of cutting bait on a homegrown talent who has yet to pan out as expected. Super Joe has been great in the clutch, batting .379 (11-for-27) with 17 RBI in ABs with runners in scoring position, and really turning up the heat when there are two outs (.378-4-11).

It so happens that Crede has a shot at becoming the first Sox third baseman with three straight 20-HR seasons, which is nice, but there’s a reason such tidbits are referred to as “trivia.” If Jermaine Dye’s history of injuries continues to be a problem, the need for Crede to out-perform his career line of .259/.308/.447 will become much more pressing.

Nick Johnson: First Base, Washington Nationals; Age 27 - 486 Career games
Early Returns: .320-9-22
Projected 2006 totals: .320-43-105
Previous career highs: .289 avg. (’05); 15 HR (’02 & ’05); 74 RBI (’05)

Johnson finally seems to be shaping into the more rounded (not in the pre-2002 Jason Giambi sense) hitter the Expos were hoping for when they sent Javier Vazquez to the Bronx in December 2003. To call him a disappointment would be an exaggeration, but his sporadic power and inability to stay on the field haven’t exactly inspired confidence in those who follow his career with more than passing interest. The mustache that once was shorn has now returned, and so the baseball-playing cousin of Rod Farva is back on track, batting .400 with three long-bombs and eight RBI in his last five games. Facing Pittsburgh and then playing in Cincinnati will do that for a hitter. Context aside, Big Nick has been consistently roping the ball this season.

Prior to this season, I pegged Johnson as a likely candidate to find another gear to his offense, in part because of the mustache, but mostly because he 2006 is Johnson’s Magical Age 27 Season. He always knew how to get on base (266 walks in 486 games), a skill which has led to 21 non-intentional walks, twelfth-most in the ML. So far, Johnson has delivered on that promise, failing to reach safely in only four games he’s started. Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Zimmerman can handle the bat, and Josés Vidro and Guillen are on board as high-end filler. Johnson is the heart of the order, and is a good bet to reach one, if not two of those triple crown projections listed above. Remaining entirely healthy may be a struggle, but if he is, Johnson will remain consistent enough at the dish to challenge Lee Stevens for 30^th place in RBI on the all-time franchise leaderboard. And he’s got a better mustache.

Ty Wigginton: Second / Third Base, Tampa Bay Devil Rays; Age 28 - 436 Career game
Early Returns: .256-9-30
Projected 2006 totals: .256-44-145
Previous career highs: .302 avg. (’02); 17 HR (’04); 71 RBI (’03)

Wigginton is he most genuinely surprising power source to emerge this season. After the Pirates released him this past off-season, it seemed the one-time Mets third baseman of the present was on the fast track to irrelevance (or Japan, at best). The Devil Rays, bless their heart, felt he was worthy of a roster spot, and were rewarded with the most torrid streak of power this side of Chris Shelton. From April 11 to April 22, Wigginton upped his ante in Tampa Bay by smoking seven homers in 11 games. At the conclusion of Wiggy’s mini-explosion, his rate stats stood at .302/.353/.730.

In the three weeks since, a 13-for-62 (.201) slide has damaged those averages; even worse, Ty has managed just three extra-base hits since his power surge, and may find playing time tough to come by as Aubrey Huff and (eventually) Jorge Cantu return from injury. Depth at third base happens to be one of the Rays’ strengths in 2006, and Wigginton’s stay with Tampa Bay may not survive Russell Branyan’s next hot streak. Perhaps I’m being unfair, but do any of us really think of Ty as a player who absolutely must be in the lineup? I could be way wrong about Wigginton. I was wrong before… It was September of 2002, the summer of love… T-Wig was an up-and-coming role player for New York, making the most of his opportunities. After hitting two pinch-hit homeruns and batting .358 for the month, Ty seemed like a scrappy type who could adequately replace Edgardo Alfonzo at third base, when the time was right. I admit without shame that I was briefly fooled into believing Wiggy was a player who could outlast Derek Jeter in the New York spotlight. By the time he was shipped to the Pirates for Kris Benson, that special feeling was long gone.

Wigginton is a perfect example of how baseball’s long season is a gift that keeps on giving. Sure, come September, his hot start will long be forgotten, but by then, dozens of others will have picked up the torch to light the baseball world on fire for two, three, maybe four weeks at a time. It’s unlikely that all the players mentioned in this space will pan out in 2006, but a few of them will enjoy breakout seasons, and maybe even earn a first All-Star selection. Wouldn’t it be great to see Chris Shelton, the ultimate hot-to-cold April story, return to Pittsburgh to represent the Detroit Tigers at the midsummer classic? Stay tuned for more information.

TEAM REPORTS: Diamondbacks

2006-05-03T23:55:00.000-07:00

Arizona Diamondbacks

LOOKING BACK: At 14-13, Bob Melvin’s team is right in the thick of the NL West standings. Arizona has outscored its opponents by 15 runs, the 5^th best differential in the league, despite batting just .248 (with 42 extra-base hits) in 15 away games. Drawing a home crowd has been somewhat problematic for the one-time World Champions; apparently, there’s nothing exciting about watching Luis Gonzalez run laps around Jay Bell and Matt Williams as the all-time franchise leader in bases on balls (at least while the Suns hang on their livelihood by the thread of Raja Bell’s jersey).

THUMBS UP: The strikeouts are troubling – his 27 Ks are the sixth-most among non-rookies in the NL – but Chad Tracy is providing a nice encore to his breakout 2005 season, when he finished among the top 10 in the league in batting average (.308) and slugging percentage (.553). His ability to play third base enabled GM Josh Byrnes to pull the trigger on the Troy Glaus deal (more on that later), and the versatile Tracy is now the only legitimate muscle in Arizona’s lineup. As a bonus, Eric Byrnes is proving that you don’t need to be a polished baseball player to hold down a major-league job. When I watch Byrnes play, it’s like watching a Hall of Famer from the dead-ball era. Is there any doubt a player with Byrnes’ skills would have been supremely valued a hundred years ago?

THUMBS DOWN: The biggest of the Diamondbacks’ off-season trades brought a much-heralded defensive second baseman and a lifelong pitching project to the desert. Neither has lit the world on fire so far in 2006. Orlando Hudson has driven in four runs through his first 99 at bats, and Miguel Batista sports a nifty 7.65 ERA and 2.2 WHIP since his first start. It hasn’t helped that Troy Glaus is tearing it up for the Blue Jays, batting .265/.365/.602, or that his 24 runs, 22 RBIs and 16 walks place him among the top three AL third basemen.

LOOKING AHEAD: Though the Glaus/Hudson/Batista deal may appear lopsided on May 3, this was a solid trade for both teams, and come September 3, it may be much easier for D’backs fans to stomach. Nothing about the Snakes screams “Division Champs,” but the same can be said about every one of their rivals in the NL Worst. The arrival of Stephen Drew will be a reason to follow this team through the rest of the first half, assuming Craig Counsell doesn't become the .340 hitter he's been in video games for years.

TEAM REPORTS: Braves

2006-05-02T14:16:00.000-07:00

Atlanta Braves

LOOKING BACK: After the worst April since Bobby Cox re-joined the Braves as manager in 1990 (see graphic), there is nowhere to go but up for a franchise that finds itself in an unfamiliar place: second. The Braves suffered injuries to the left side of the infield and, to their credit, the fill-ins have performed serviceably. Okay, so the Braves only managed just over 3.8 runs per contest in Larry’s absence, but we didn’t really expect that much production from Wilson Betemit and Pete Orr (.229 average, 3.9 K/BB ratio through May 1), did we? If these past few weeks are a preview of what the future (as in 2008) holds for Atlanta, I will be the happiest Mets fan on the block.

THUMBS UP: The good news, such as it is, would have to be Edgar Renteria’s blistering start, which, while it hasn’t led to success in the win column, is definitely an encouraging sign. After the Mummy’s downright awful 2005 campaign in Boston (.721 OPS, 30 errors) had many people questioning his mental and physical strength. Those concerns have been erased, for now; through yesterday, Renteria had hit safely in every game this season, and his .373 average led the National League (min 50 AB). It remains to be seen whether Renteria can reverse his steady decline in offensive performance since 2003, but the Braves certainly weren’t going to be playing Andy Marte anytime soon, and, in Renteria, GM John Schuerholz appears to have netted a solid, if unspectacular, replacement for Rafael Furcal.

(Digression: As Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux enjoy brilliance in their grey years, it has been difficult not to notice that Atlanta has lost more talent in the last five seasons than the Pirates (or the Royals) have developed. While other teams scramble to pick up the wayward pieces of their organization – see Furcal , J.D. Drew, Javy Lopez, Julio Franco, Jaret Wright, Kyle Farnsworth – the Braves rely increasingly on homegrown talent such as Kyle Davies, Jeff Francouer and Brian McCann. This is no secret. What’s truly impressive has been Schuerholz’s acumen on the trading block. Oscar Villareal (!) is the team’s wins leader, Tim Hudson is pitcher 1A in the Braves’ rotation and Renteria’s early success speaks for itself. In previous years, Atlanta brought in Johnny Estrada, Mike Hampton, Drew, Bret Boone and Fred McGriff. The only questionable deal made under Schuerholz’s watch was sending a young Jason Schmidt to Pittsburgh for Denny “I look like the young John Lithgow but I pitch like the old John Lithgow” Neagle in the 1996 playoff run. At least Schuerholz didn’t make the mistake of signing Neagle to a long-term deal…)

THUMBS DOWN: Oscar Villareal (4-0) is the team’s win leader, as the starters have pitched poorly, or received little run support. Forecasting a decline for Jorge “I Miss Leo Mazzone” Sosa wasn’t too difficult, as the former Devil Ray rotation castoff (never a good suffix) was due to suffer a bit once his luck started evening out. Atlanta’s pitching woes go beyond Sosa (0-4, 8.89 ERA, 2.04 WHIP), though. John Thomson’s 1.32 ERA obscures the fact that he has faced the Dodgers, Nationals and Padres. Hudson’s one-hititer yesterday was only the fifth win by an Atlanta starter this year. The rotation simply has not performed, throwing fewer innings than all but four NL starting staffs (one of which is the Marlins). The bullpen has already blown five saves, and sports the lowest strikeout-to-walk ratio in the National League (1.2). Quite simply, these are not your older sister’s Atlanta Braves.

I hesitate to place all the blame on new pitching coach Roger McDowell. By all accounts, he is a fine teacher and will have his work cut out for him, with youngsters Joey Devine, Blaine Boyer, Macay McBride and Chuck James ready to make an impact with the big club. McDowell’s predecessor looms large in the equation, however, and Mazzone’s strength always seemed to be reclamation projects like Sosa and Thomson, with Wright, John Burkett, and Chris Hammond before them. I have little doubt that McDowell will bring along the young pitchers just fine, but the Braves as a team cannot win games unless the No. 3-5 starters consistently deliver 6-7 strong innings. This will bear watching throughout the season, and into next year, when Hampton will begin to rebuild himself and the young Braves are a little more seasoned.

LOOKING AHEAD: Starting tomorrow, the Braves will play 15 straight games against NL East opponents, including this weekend’s series against the Mets that will be Atlanta’s last chance to beat up on New York until late July. Desperation is not a condition usually associated with these Braves; they’ve been written off plenty in the past, and to declare Bobby Cox’s crew dead in the water would be premature. The thing is, they haven’t had to climb out of a hole this steep since 1990, which was also the last time the National League held a postseason without visiting Atlanta. As evidenced by their poor April, the Braves will need a lot of breaks to keep their title as Division Champions beyond mid-September. We’ll check back on June 2.

TEAM REPORTS: Angels

2006-05-01T09:30:00.000-07:00

LA Angels of Anaheim

LOOKING BACK: The competition’s struggles have allowed Los Angeles’ AL team to remain near the top of the standings in the West, which is a fairly positive remark as Mike Scioscia’s ball club wraps up a rather ho-hum month. Although April was only the third time the Angels have recorded a losing month since their recent playoff run began in 2004, fans of the Halos may find comfort in the knowledge that April has consistently been the team’s weakest overall month since Scioscia took over as skipper before the 2000 season (see graphic).

THUMBS UP: Vlad Guerrero continued to do his thing (.306-6-20), and the starting trio of John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar and Ervin Santana has succeeded (8-3, 3.42 ERA), making the absence of reigning Cy Young-winner Bartolo Colón a bit easier to stomach. Going into the last day of the month, Angels relievers had posted a 2.61ERA, best in the American League. Carrying the load, as usual, are the spectacular Scot Shields (13.2 IP, 0.66 ERA), Brendan Donnelly (12 IP, 2.25 ERA) and Frankie Rodriguez (8-9 in saves, 15 Ks/10.2 IP).

The three-headed monster of Shonneliguez has combined to make late-inning domination the pitching staff’s greatest strength, followed closely by its collective weight – Esteban Yan (255), Colón (250) and Donnelly (240) are easy choices for “Angels Players Who Should Never Be Seated In The Same Row On The Team Airplane.” (It’s a good thing Colon is on the DL right now; I’m not sure if there is enough room on the bullpen bench for all three of these guys to sit down at the same time. No wonder Donnelly seems to pitch in every game…)

THUMBS DOWN: No team has drawn fewer walks than the Halos’ 47, a major reason the team’s on base percentage stands at .302, second-worst in MLB. The Angels have scored just 112 runs so far, a weaker total than every AL team except the Twins (97), Royals (83) and Athletics (110). Simply put, their offense has been offensive. The lack of production from catchers Jose Molina (.180/.212/.220) and Jeff Mathis (.108/.175/.216) may not be much of a surprise, but the performance of the Angels’ corner infielders not named “Chone” has been particularly awful. Between them, Casey Kotchman, Robb Quinlan, Maicer Izturis and Edgardo Alfonzo are 27-for-130 (.208) with a .254 slugging percentage and zero homeruns.

I am pessimistic about how long the Angels can hang around the top of the division if this level of offense remains the norm, and it is difficult to forecast a brighter scenario among this collection of “talent”. Perhaps Orlando Cabrera (.302-4-19) and Adam Kennedy (.324/.363/.459) will continue their early success, and Darin Erstad (.238/.279/.350) will turn back the clock to the year 2000. More likely, one or both of the Angels’ middle infielders will stop playing above his head, and Erstad will play out the season as a ghost of his former overrated self.

THE ROAD AHEAD: The Angels play only 8 games within their division in May, including two against Oakland to open the month. A nine-game road trip to Detroit, Toronto and Chicago, will be a big test for a team that has performed much better at home (.571) than on the road (.499) in the first six seasons of the Mike Scioscia Era. Interleague play rears its head into the May schedule, as the annual Angels-Dodgers Battle of Los Angeles series visits L.A., proper, in the middle of the month. The Angles have not had a losing May under Scioscia, a trend that will reverse itself if the awffense continues to be awful.

Everyone Plays on Friday - AL Predictions

2006-04-13T22:20:00.000-07:00

Angels (5-4, 1st) @ Orioles (5-5, 4th)
Ervin Santana (1-0, 1.59) - Rodrigo Lopez (1-1, 6.39)
SoCal's most promising team begins a 10-game road trip tonight, and will face the O's, whose 59 runs scored rank second in the American League, trailing only the Yankees. By contrast, the Halos have scored just 38 runs, which at least is more than Kansas City. Baltimore's starter, Father Rodrigo, has defeated the Angels four times in a row, averaging 6.5 IP and a 1.04 ERA since 2003. I predict a change in all these patterns. Vladimir Guerrero has been under the radar so far this season, and it seems about time for Vladdy to have one of those 10-13, 3 HR, 9 RBIs kind of weekends. Prediction: ANGELS

Indians (6-3, 1st) @ Tigers (5-4, T-2nd)
Jake Westbrook (2-0, 1.98) - Kenny Rogers (1-1. 4.76)
As Cleveland begins a 10-game road trip of its own, I might worry about Travis Hafner's ability to dominate an opposing lefty pitcher. Fortunately, for Pronk, that lefty is Kenny Rogers. Detroit has already come back to Earth - after winning their first five games, the Tigers have yet to taste victory again - and success in this four-game series against the Indians would do a lot for the confidence of this young pitching staff. But after Rogers is abused in this opening matchup (I'm predicting 7 or 8 runs, maybe 4 innings) the Tigers will wish they had never left the Motor City. Prediction: INDIANS

Mariners (5-5, 3rd) @ Red Sox (6-3, 1st)
Jamie Moyer (0-1, 4.38) - Curt Schilling (2-0, 1.93)
Since 2000, Moyer is 1-6 with a 7.79 ERA against the Red Sox. I expect more of the same, as Wily Mo Pena and Dustan Mohr play their way into the hearts of Boston fans. Okay, so maybe that's a bit of a stretch, but nobody needs to see Adam Stern and David Ortiz play the outfield against lefties (LOOK: Big Papi is listed as an outfielder. Crazy!). The Mariners truly seem like a .500 ballclub, albeit one of the most exciting .500 ballclubs in recent memory. Ichiro and King Felix get the pub, but there are more interesting questions: Is Yuniesky Betancourt ready to play everyday? Can Rafael Soriano replace Eddie Guardado as the team's closer? Will Scott Spiezio continue to haunt the Mariners from beyond the grave? Few of these questions will be answered today; all of them will be on my mind. Prediction: RED SOX

Royals (2-6, 5th) @ Rays (4-6, 5th)
Scott Elarton (0-2, 3.29) - Scott Kazmir (1-1, 5.68)
Who will win the Battle of the Scotts? Who cares? Prediction: RAYS

Yankees (5-4, T-2nd) @ Twins (4-5, 4th)
Mike Mussina (1-0, 2.77) - Scott Baker (0-1, 6.23)
This is the one game I would love to watch today, as the Fabulous Baker Boy will try to stave off a Yankee lineup that is scarier than Rene Russo in Two for the Money. Seriously, though, Giambi is a mean son of a gun, and nobody ever looked forward to facing A-Rod, Jeter or Sheffield. After Kyle Lohse survived against Oakland the other day, it is now Baker who is on the hot seat in the Twins rotation. One of these two is the candidate likely to be pulled for up-and-comer Francisco Liriano at some point this season, hopefully (for my fantasy team) before the All-Star Break. I won't speculate that Baker's job security rests on his performance against the Yankees today - talk about pressure - but he should have his post-game bottle of moonshine ready, just in case it's a night he'll want to forget. Prediction: YANKEES

Blue Jays (5-4, T-2nd) @ White Sox (5-4, T-2nd)
Scott Downs (0-0, 5.40) - Javier Vazquez (0-0, 2.57)
Is there anyone who can stop Jim Thome? Downs would seem an unlikely candidate; one of six southpaws on Toronto's 40-man roster, he has been dubbed by Baseball Prospectus, "The epitome of the replacement-level lefty." For the uninitated, "replacement-level" denotes exactly what it appears to, and Downs may, in fact, epitomize the type. He "boasts" a career 5.02 ERA in 262 major league innings, and allows a homerun about every seven frames. If that level of performance cannot be easily replaced, J.P. Ricciardi is in for a long season. Even if Thome doesn't go yard tonight, it's a good bet that one (or three) of his teammates will, and Javy Vazquez should pitch effectively enough to give Chicago's bullpen (.287 BAA) some much-needed rest. Prediction: WHITE SOX

Rangers (3-7, 4th) @ Athletics (5-5, 2nd)
Kevin Millwood (0-2, 7.36) - Barry Zito (1-1, 8.59)
A matchup of de jure aces, and AL West rivals, this should be a hard-fought game as neither club wants to fall much further off the pace. In Millwood's rookie season with Atlanta, all five starting pitchers finished with at least 16 wins, an achievement that spoke to the durability and depth of the rotation. This year, Oakland's prized collection of Zito, Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and Esteban Loaiza has a decent chance to accomplish the same feat. Winning games against lesser teams, such as Texas, will go a long way toward getting the A's back into the postseason. A note of caution: the Braves failed to make the World Series in 1998. Prediction: ATHLETICS

Check back tomorrow to see how these picks stacked up, and enjoy the games!

Prelude to a Punch?

2006-04-12T16:03:00.000-07:00

Mets 10, Nationals 5. Sometimes the score really doesn't tell the whole story. There is so much to say about last Thursday's contest between NL East "rivals," a game I witnessed via the 2006 debut of ESPN's Thursday Night Baseball (not exactly a traditional broadcast venue, but I guess any time Ramon Ortiz pitches, it's an event). As the Mets and Nationals prepare to face off for the fifth time of this young season, here are some thoughts about what to expect, and also a few highlights from what went down last time the two clubs:

The return continues for "El Dedo," Pedro Martinez. Early in his first game against the Nats, Martinez looked uncomfortable in his motion, to say the least, and it was difficult not to notice how he was almost pushing his pitches toward the plate, rather than throwing. (Remember that outfielder on your Little League team whose throwing style made you think he never played catch outside the season? If you were the first kid to show up for a game or practice, and that kid was the second, you wanted to hide in the bushes, just to avoid somebody seeing you tossing the ball with such an incompetent thrower. In my darkest moments, I fear that the winter-long media obsession with Pedro's big toe is merely a decoy, that his shoulder is the real source of concern, only the writers and team brass are so horrified when they think of the fallout of such an injury -- Glavine-Zambrano-Trachsel-Bannister-Heilman, with Darren Oliver and Jose Lima waiting in the wings -- that the mere possibility cannot be broached. Has Pedro become that Little League nincompoop who nobody wants to associate with? The question burned in my mind for the first couple of innings, although he eventually seemed to settle into himself, with mixed results.)

His mechanical rust notwithstanding, El Dedo effectively shut down the Washington hitters in the 1st, 4th and 6th innings of his season debut, although his control issues were obvious: a four-pitch walk to Ramon Ortiz; four hit batters for the day, equalling Martinez's total for the 2005 season;

Aggressive play will rule the day. In Pedro's last start, the Mets staked themselved an early lead by pushing across two runs in the first frame. Leadoff hitter/Energizer Bunny Jose Reyes dropped a lob wedge into center field and moved to third when new Mets backstop/Brooklyn native Paul Lo Duca executed on an apparent run-and-hit play. All the early talk about Lo Duca has focused on his ability to take pitches so Reyes can steal bases, but it's PLD's ability to make solid contact that makes him an ideal No. 2 hitter on this team. Reyes is just as dangerous when the ball is in play, the type of runner who forces the other team to make mistakes. (When it comes to running the bases, I cannot remember a more exciting player than Reyes, who shows no ill effects of the hamstring/leg injuries that plagued him in his earlier days. If any major leaguer is capable of stealing 100 bases these days, it is Joselito, who undoubtedly has the support of his manager, Willie Randolph. In his first year at the helm, Willie's aggressive managing style resulted in more stolen bases (153) than any other National League team. Leading the way was Reyes, who became the youngest player to reach 60 steals since Tim Raines in 1981. If Reyes ever gets his OBP up to .360-.375, it's hard to imagine he won't swipe in the triple digits.)

David Wright is living up to the hype. Wright has been slapping and driving the ball to right field almost exlcusively in these early games, an encouraging sign that the youngster's plate coverage and bat control have not been over-hyped. His combination of discipline -- he is the Anti-Reyes, rarely swinging on the first pitch -- and power will go a long way this year. I feel that Wright could hit anywhere from 2-6 in the lineup and succeed. He has driven in runs in each of the Mets' first six games, setting a new franchise record. The ceiling on his production levels appeared high before the season began, and his torrid start has surely bolstered these lofty expectations.

The Nationals have a captain, and he wears a mustache. In the most encouraging development of the Nats' young season, Nick Johnson has become Rod Farva. Not only is Johnson more fun to watch because of his newfound ability to pass for an adolescent walrus, but his three-run homer off Pedro put the Nationals right back in last Thursday's game. He takes pitches, makes contact, and has been with the team longer than anyone besides Jose Vidro. I don't know how the Win Shares stack up, but it seems the Nationals/Expos may have actually gotten equal value in the deal that sent Javy Vazquez to the Bombers.

Ryan Zimmerman presses onward in his Rookie of the Year campaign. He's young, he has the playing time, and he has a lot of hype. The highly-touted RZA crushed a homer against Billy Wagner in the Mets' second game of the season, which at least is an improvement over last year, when Mets fans were treated to Braden Looper's Opening Day implosion, aka "The Heartbreaker," aka "The Day Joe Randa Made the List," aka "Armando's Last Revenge," aka "The Day Pedro Regretted His Own Existence." However, it was the RZA who was made to look foolish in his first time facing Pedro. The bat never left his shoulders, and on three pitches was called out on strikes. (This isn't meant to be an indictment of Zimmerman, but can you imagine the hype that would surrounded this guy if he went back-to-back on Wagner and El Dedo? He could have locked up the Rookie of the Year award right there with a three-run homer to give the Nationals the lead. Instead, he couldn't muster up a swing against Pedro's buffet of changeups and two-seamers. Go Mets.)

Nationals catcher Brian Schneider looks to make personal history. Say what you will about Schneider's lofty reputation as a defensive backstop, but his inclusion on the U.S. team as starting catcher cannot be ignored as a major brain fart in the organization of that squad in the World Baseball Classic. Just about every other catcher in his divisionwould have been a better choice over Schneider, who -- a smile on his face -- will one day tell his grandchildren that he reached base against Pedro Martinez. (This is the most creative way I can spin Willie Randolph's decision to walk Schneider on purpose in Thursday's game. For those keeping score at home, Ramon Ortiz followed with a two-RBI single.) If Schneider can reach base in consecutive games against Pedro, he should retire from the game immediately, citing professional nirvana.

Ok, the game's about to start, so I have to go see how Jose Reyes can avoid seeing the fourth pitch of an at bat. Happy Passover!

2003-03-07T10:12:00.000-08:00

Aw, crap...

I just heard this bit of "news" about Astacio's shoulder, and it's frankly not something I want to be thinking about. I mean, spring training is supposed to be a period of great hope and enthusiasm. Right now, I'm supposed to be deluding myself into believing this will be the Mets' year, that the Braves really are a shadow of their former selves, that Coney will sneak into the back end of the rotation and win his first three starts in April.

My calendar says that it's March, and March is a time for celebration. Celebrating that the Mets were able to land a few second-tier free agent stars who shouldn't come close to duplicating past successes. Celebrating that despite his dwindling production and knee functionality, Mike Piazza is still the best catcher in baseball(/the NL?). Celebrating even the arrival of Rey Sanchez, because this season I won't have to watch Rey Ordonez go 0-for-13 in the first series against Atlanta while bumbling two routine grounders.

The realities of the Mets' futility normally sink in gradually throughout the season, and it's usually not until mid-to-late-August that I've lost all hope for an orange-and-blue parade. This is spring training. I'm not supposed to realize that the Mets' success could be largely dependent on the health of three geriatrics (Glavine, Leiter, Cone) for a couple of months. And I'm certainly not supposed to acknowledge publicly that our best pitcher last year -- who faded miserably down the stretch -- never had surgery on his torn labrum, allowing it to heal "naturally." Well, the last time I heard a strategy like that was with Todd Stottlemyre. Yikes.

We all know what happened with Stott, but, then again, didn't his Diamondbacks win the World Series without him, resting on the arms of two old guys? Hmm. Maybe there is hope after all...

2002-09-01T12:27:00.000-07:00

I'm not sure if we in the blog community are encouraged to endorse print media, but the cover article of today's New York Times Magazine is all about Bonds and his makeup as a professional athlete. It's pretty good. That's all.

2002-08-29T15:44:00.000-07:00

Bud's Reign and Rockies' Rain all washed out

I cannot believe this. On the air, on KNBR 680 AM radio in the Bay Area, I'm hearing the horrible weather looming over the ballpark in Denver this afternoon. The lights at Coors Field, home of the Colorado Rockies, have just gone out, a tornado has sprung up in the vicinity and lightning has struck quite near the game, which is now in its ninth inning.

Broadcaster Jon Miller astutely chimed in that the perilous meteorological conditions may symbolize the labor struggle leading to the looming player strike tomorrow, August 30, the strike date posted by Donald Fehr and the players' union reps. Will the players strike? Some say they will. ESPN.com has publicized clever signs brandished by fans nationwide at recent games; one message — "You strike, we're out!" — sums up the sentiments nicely.

More optimistic followers of the labor negotiations point to upbeat comments made by this or that player for this or that ball club. Tom Manager leaves one of his starters in for a certain number of pitches. Dick General Manager shuffles a few non-prospects for a 35-year-old starter and cash. Harry Ballplayer (not in the Wade Boggs way) sells the union line, something like caring about the fans. Many fans point to these as signs of progress. Others hold more skepticism.

Baseball thinkers and writers who understand the labor struggle better than I do cover the process with more insight and clarity than I could ever aspire to, so I'll just stick to the weather in Colorado in this space. But it strikes me that the Rockies, more than any other franchise, exemplify the disastrous path baseball has taken since '94.

The expansion to the Rocky Mountains — strictly Bronco territory until then — seemed to work, initially. Starting with the team's inception in '93, the Rockies outdrew beyond expectation. They were the first team (I may be wrong on this) to draw four million tickets in a season. In only their third season they reached the playoffs, losing to Atlanta in the National League Division Series. The highly-touted Blake St. Bombers tandem of Castilla, Bichette, Galarraga and Walker rang in brand-new Coors in style, mashing home run after home run into the jam-packed stands.

Recently, however, the Rockies have struggled in their personnel decisions, and have also failed to maintain a fruitful farm system. Darryl Kile never settled into the thin Rocky Mountain air. The unloading of aging cash vacuums like Dante Bichette and Vinny Castilla proved to be smart moves by the Colorado front office, but current GM Dan O'Dowd has misspent those Benjamins on Mike "Gosh, the schools are great here" Hampton and Denny "I look like the young John Lithgow but I pitch like the old John Lithgow" Neagle. The current roster features two legitimate stars (Molson Man Walker and Tennessee Helton), and more so-called "tools" outfielders-turned late-bloomers (Kapler, Payton, Cust) than Clint Hurdle can cram into a lineup card.

Attendance, while healthy by, say, Tampa Bay standards, has declined noticeably since the The Year That Ellis Burks Was God (1996), and who could blame the fans? Would you show up to see Shawn Chacon cough up seven in four and watch as the Rockies come back to win 13-8? With the NFL season gearing up for kickoff? With the Avs putting up such a great fight in this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs? With the Colorado State football team riding last year's thrilling campaign? With Nuggets GM Kiki Vandeweghe keeping basketball interesting in the post-LaFrentz/Van Exel/McDyess era?

The Colorado Rockies, an organization that thrived as a fan-friendly product through the mid-to-late-nineties, have failed despite playing into all the scams of its generation. Expansion. New ballpark. Money. Fans. Homers. Money. Contracts. Losses. Failure. Lightning. Thunder. Rain. Wind. Destruction.

As the baseball world awaits word from New York — be it good news or bad — the ballclub in Denver is feeling the harsh effects of 1990s baseball already. They threw money at top-name players, and those contracts backfired. Now, their team is lousy, stuck with the lowly-but-hopeful Padres, behind three good-but-beatable teams. Hey, the days of Kevin Ritz and Jody Reed may not sound very exciting in retrospect, but fans were excited then.

The game has been called by now, and hopefully residents in the Denver area are protected during the storms. We all know by now that more imoprtant things than baseball command our attention at times. However, in the coming hours, we will discover whether Miller's comment, which sparked this train of thought for me, is timely prescient, or merely an inspiration for this rant.

But I digress.

2002-08-12T13:26:00.000-07:00

I have a friend (yes, the rumors are true) with whom I talk baseball every time I see him. We take turns bemoaning the plight of our teams (Oakland and the Mets) and argue about who has the better players, etc. When we're going back and forth, nothing ignites passionate disagreement between us more than a good ol' Hall of Fame debate — the merits of this player vs. that one, did so-and-so peak too early...

Vladimir Guerrero hit his 200th home run a few nights ago against Milwaukee, and the brightest star his side of Niagara said that he has his sights set on 600. With so many young players (A-Rod, Helton, Andruw, Vlad) climbing higher up the all-time lists with each crack of the bat, my thoughts return to my friend and the player central to one of our most hotly-contested Hall of Fame debates: Sammy Sosa.

Now, I don't mean to offend anybody here. To some of you, Sammy Sosa may be a first-ballot Hall of Famer if you ever saw one. And I can see your point. He's been an incredible force the last four and a half seasons, finishing with more than 60 home runs in three of four full years. He's slugged over .600 and improved his walk total each of the past four seasons, and he has a chance to finish his 2002 campaign as a member of the 500 club. Despite turning 33 just this summer, Sosa's gaudy numbers over the last five years have generated discussion about Sosa's place in history, and with another productive season almost in the books, it's hard to deny that Sosa has been one of the greatest hitters of the last decade.

As is the case with everyone who's been a Mets fan the past two seasons, however, I've learned that to deny something that seems obvious to everyone else — like, I dunno, a certain team's postseason chances — is altogether very possible, no matter how difficult it may seem. To follow that thought: Sammy Sosa is not a Hall of Famer. Not yet, at least. Why not? Well, it doesn't take a ton of research to realize this, but without his home runs totals, Sosa doesn't really have anything special to support his candidacy. Let's stroll through the record books, shall we?

To gain a better understanding of his achievements, it's important to compare Sosa to two groups of players — his contemporaries, and everyone else. Sosa has hit 39 homers so far this season, sending him past Ken Griffey, Jr., for the second-highest active total. Among active players, Sosa also places inside the top 25 in slugging, runs, hits, total bases, RBI and steals. Such an elementary examination of the facts certainly supports the notion that Sammy is a very good hitter, one of the best playing today, which is an assertion I'm comfortable agreeing with.

But Sosa's numbers fall apart somewhat when viewed in a more historical light. His 489 career home runs still hold up, yes; 19th all-time is something to be proud of. However, strikeouts aside (he's closing in on Dave Kingman for seventh), Sammy doesn't place among the top 25 in any other main category. His .548 career slugging mark is close, and he'll finish 2002 ranking someplace around 60th in RBI, but nothing besides the homers really stands out as exceptional.

"Okay, Misha, that's fine, but what would you say about Mark McGwire? What did he ever contribute other than a healthy dosage of bombs? I suppose you're telling me McGwire doesn't belong in the Hall?" This argument is interesting, and by "interesting," I don't mean anything sarcastic like "flawed" or "misleading." I mean, it's those things too, but that's not what I'm saying. Big Mac struck out a ton and will be remembered only because he hit homers, and without his four-year surge of dominance from '96 through '99, there's no way he reaches Cooperstown, either.

Still, there's a hell of a difference between Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire. In fact, there are many differences. McGwire had a much better OBP (.394 to .348) despite batting 15 points worse over his career. He takes Sammy in slugging (.588 to .548), and his 162-game averages are superior in homers (50 to 43) and nearly double in walks (114 to 63). McGwire also had a better strikeout rate and slightly more RBI over 162 games, while nearly matching Sosa in runs. In runs created, McGwire blows Sosa out of the water. Essentially, McGwire was quite a bit better than Sosa at a few things, and I think the difference means McGwire's inclusion in the Hall.

So maybe comparing Sosa to the great McGwire isn't fair; after all, a slugger of McGwire's talent comes along once a generation. And this really is the heart of what I'm saying: except for his home runs, players with Sosa's numbers (or better) are abundant in today's game. Here's a chart showing the career 162-game averages for Sosa and other hitters of his generation with a shot at the Hall:

	# of seasons	Runs	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP.	SLG.	OPS.	AVG.
S. Sosa	11.34	105	26	43	117	63	158	.348	.548	.896	.279
J. Gonzalez	9.71	102	38	42	136	45	122	.344	.563	.907	.296
R. Palmeiro	14.62	97	35	33	106	76	78	.376	.521	.894	.293
M. Ramirez	7.31	111	39	40	135	92	134	.407	.562	.999	.312
L. Walker	10.07	113	40	33	110	70	100	.398	.576	.974	.318
F. Thomas	10.25	111	38	36	123	123	91	.432	.568	1.000	.314
M. Piazza	8.40	100	29	40	124	66	93	.390	.576	.966	.322
E. Martinez	10.66	102	43	25	101	103	92	.425	.530	.955	.315
B. Bonds	14.80	121	34	41	109	126	89	.425	.592	1.017	.294
K. Griffey, Jr.	11.31	109	32	41	119	80	106	.379	.563	.942	.295
F. McGriff	14.27	91	29	33	104	88	124	.380	.514	.894	.286
J. Thome	8.24	107	31	38	108	116	163	.412	.560	.972	.285
B. Williams	9.23	113	37	24	105	88	98	.411	.487	.889	.306
J. Bagwell	10.80	117	39	34	120	109	116	.414	.550	.964	.302

As you can see, there are a dozen guys with numbers like Sosa's, and most of them have serious chances at Cooperstown. This list doesn't even include players who aren't eligible yet but who also have good numbers, like Jason Giambi, A-Rod, Vlad, Giles, Helton and Chipper. Sosa's numbers are very good, but even his only outstanding mark, his home run average, fails to clearly elevate him above the rest. A glance at the all-time career homer leaderboard shows that at least twenty of the top fifty home run-hitters played most of their careers in the past 25 years. Twenty-one active players are inside the top 100. Because of this, whenever somebody asks me questions like, "Would you keep Sosa out if he hit 500? How many would it take?" I have to explain that I don't know how many he (or anyone else) would have to hit. As far as I'm concerned, no number of home runs thrown into discussion is safe, certainly not the Hall yardstick of old, 500. Four players — Sosa, Griffey, McGriff and Palmeiro — will probably reach the milestone this or next year. It is not out of question to speculate that, ten years from now, a dozen more could lay claim to the same feat.

Look, it's impossible to ignore what Sosa has accomplished over the last five or six seasons. If you hit sixty home runs three times, you're going to get attention, and you probably deserve it. But Sammy Sosa is a perfect example of why fans should avoid measuring players by their milestones. Three and a half seasons ago, Sosa wouldn't have even made today's top-100 list. Does a player really go from outside the top 100 — in his only statistical category of dominance, no less — to a Hall of Fame plateau in three and a half seasons? Home runs and saves are the only categories I can think of that allow someone to bypass so much history in such a short period of time, and there isn't really much history in the all-time saves list, anyhow.

Sammy Sosa will pass Lou Gehrig on the home run leaderboard by the end of the month, and pretty soon will start drawing comparisons to the all-time greats. And somewhere, a lonely, dissenting baseball fan will wonder how so much praise is showered on a player who's not even a great among his peers.

2002-08-08T02:28:00.000-07:00

Stick-in' it to Wireless Park

I was fortunate enough to be at Pac Bell Park for the Giants-Cubs game tonight, and while the Giants pulled off a 10th-inning victory against Chicago, you wouldn't have known it if not for the scoreboard. His first time up, Barry Bonds stepped into the box and was greeted by something like 14,000 camera flashes. He lined a pitch from Kerry Wood to the warning track, eliciting groans from the unusually-packed-for-a-Giants-game-in-the-first-inning crowd. When Bonds doubled in the fifth inning, it was the most unanimously-booed double I have ever had the pleasure of reacting to. After Bonds came out of the game for pinch runner Tom Goodwin in the eighth, so many "fans" left the ballpark so quickly you'd think there had been a bomb scare. By the time Benito Santiago dribbled an infield single between Billy Mueller and Six Finger Alfonseca to push across the winning run in the 10th, the game had become something of an afterthought. Most of the boats had left McCovey Cove. The arcade section containing the right-field bleachers, which had been packed tighter than a post-game Express Caltrain only innings earlier, once more featured standing/breathing room, its former tenants long having returned to their garlic fries, cell phone conversations and other assorted things not remotely related to baseball or the game at hand.

Before I make my general point, I feel a disclaimer is appropriate. In the few dozen games I've attended in my 18 years, I've been a part of some pretty special moments. I got to see my favorite player from my childhood, Darryl Strawberry, smack three homeruns against the White Sox one steamy summer night in the Bronx. I saw David Cone's first start back from his shoulder aneurysm in '96, when he no-hit Oakland for seven innings but was lifted by manager Joe Torre for precautionary reasons. Cone had pitched the first game that this life-long Mets fan went to in '89, and this comeback game cemented him as my new favorite player, as Straw — the constant disappoint — had fallen somewhat out of my good graces over the years.

A few summers later, with Don Larsen throwing out the first pitch on Yogi Berra day in the Bronx, I was in the stands to see Coney pitch a perfect game against Montreal. That same summer, I sat in the stands with my grandpa and 30,000 screaming Dominicans as Sammy Sosa belted two homers against the Mets on Dominican Night at Shea. I've seen a grand slam, a playoff game, several major league debuts, many extra-innings games and even the Village People (before "Until There's A Cure Day" a few summers ago at the Stick). These moments aren't all terrible rare, or even particularly unique; the point I'm trying to make is that I've been at more than my share of games that were overshadowed by an accomplishment or offset by one circumstance or another.

That said, I have never been part of a crowd as disinterested in a game as tonight's Pac Bell crowd was. The fans seemed so caught up in the Bonds sideshow that they completely missed obvious clapping moments like Russ Ortiz walking off the mound with the lead after pitching seven strong innings. The Cubs tied the game in their half of the 9th with a base hit well over the head of Shawon Dunston. Dunston, though, who never makes a play in the outfield look pretty, fell on his ass attempting to make a play, and was raucously booed when he stepped up to the plate later in the game.

Look, on a theoretical level, I appreciate that the Giants built Pac Bell Park. The sight lines are great from every seat in the building, it has unbelievable views of the Bay and it's not too hard to look at, either. But after going to a dozen or so games the past three seasons, I'm ready to move back to Candlestick. It's been great going to sold-out games held at an architectually-astounding park with all the "modern amenities" and so forth, but the Pac Bell fans are killing me. Not only are most of the fans stupid, but they can't even be stupid in an out-of-sight, out-of-mind type of way. They all bring their phones, and their calling plans all seem to require that they place and receive several calls while in their seats. When they cheer, it's de-personalized garbage they read off of the scoreboard, and many of them don't arrive until the fifth inning.

Candlestick was an eyesore of a ballpark, and it didn't draw anywhere near the number of fans that the "Jewel of San Francisco" rakes in. It didn't have an oversized baseball glove or a Coke bottle slide, and I'm pretty sure there were never any Portugese water dogs. The Stick was concrete grey and grass green, and the only other colors were in the opposing teams' uniforms. When you went to watch a game there, though, by God, that's what you went to do. Make no mistake about it; Candlestick Park was a dump and I'm probably more happy than sad to be watching games in a more hospitable environment. But when doing so is at the cost of sanity, I just might watch Barry go for 700 from my couch.

2002-08-05T10:39:00.000-07:00

OPS-olutely horrible

As of this morning, none of the Detroit hitters who qualify for the batting title (or other rate stats) have an .800 OPS. With Robert Fick (.792) and Randall Simon (.775) leading the pack, the Tigers are the only team that can make this claim. They should be so proud.

Although I think OPS really is an overused stat in making basic player evaluations/comparisons, and .800 is a fairly arbitrary cutoff (after all, Fick is only eight points away), the Tigers are still pretty pathetic. The Yanks have six qualified hitters over .800, and the Red Sox have five (plus the quite-productive Cliff Floyd, who obviously won't finish the year with enough ABs to qualify in either league but whose OPS is over .900). If they continue like this, Detroit will be the first team without an .800-OPS hitter since... You guessed it: the 2001 Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

2002-08-04T23:08:00.000-07:00

Two pariahs, 1161 homers, one peculiar distinction

David Pinto just pointed out that Barry Bonds now has 11 straight seasons with at least 30 homers. While there's nothing special about the number 30 as a cutoff point (as opposed to 25, or 28, or 34), there are two reasons immediately obvious to me why this stat is a testament to Bonds' greatness:

1) It shows that Bonds has been hitting balls out of the park since the days when only two middle infielders (Ripken and Sandberg) playing the game had that of power, as opposed to some of the bums knocking out 30 the past few years (Ed Sprague, Jay Bell, Tony Batista). Look, the last thing I'd want is to commit the crime of overrating the players from my baseball card-collecting days, or romantically wax about the fonder days of baseball, but perhaps 30 really is a good benchmark. I mean, just eight or nine years ago, if a player hit 30 homeruns, that was a hell of a year. Forty was something reserved for the best of the best — Frank Thomas, Bonds, and once in a while someone like Jeff Bagwell. At least that's how I remember it. Compare that to just last year, when Shawn Green connected for 49 and you wouldn't have known about it unless you checked the leaderboards yourself. Last season, three players in one league hit 57! That's insane! Bottom line, Bonds is one of the few modern power hitters who I feel has earned his place among the all-time leaders.

2) It's REALLY HARD to sustain such a level performance for this many CONSECUTIVE seasons. Perhaps I'm stating the obvious here, but consider: many players have hit thirty home runs in a season. We talk about them all the time. "Oh yeah, he'll getcha yer 30 homers, 100 RBI, etc...) Raul Mondesi, Eric Karros, Larry Walker, Tim Salmon, Gary Sheffield, Paul Konerko, Moises Alou, Cliff Floyd... I could throw out a dozen more. But these players don't really churn out 30 homeruns a year. They might do well enough in their most productive seasons to average thirty a season, but they don't really hit 30 every season. Walker's "only" done it four times. Mondesi's done it three times. Alou? Klesko? Twice. And this isn't even talking about consecutive seasons. Matt Williams? Yeah, he hit 30 six times. But never more than two seasons in a row. Ditto Ron Gant, Jimmy Edmonds and Dante Bichette. Hell, Reggie Jackson never hit 30 homers in back-to-back years. As the man says, "You could look it up." Therefore, for Bonds to have performed this consistently, he's had to avoid serious injury, and also compensate for minor injuries and minor inconveniences to do so. Just thinking about how many promising seasons and careers have been derailed by injury and war brings me an even greater appreciation of what Bonds has done.

2002-08-04T14:03:00.000-07:00

EXTRA! EXTRA! The Mets make a transaction we can all agree with!

Heh... I just read that the Mets designated Mark Little for assignment, bringing Steve Phillips' seasonal stat line to:

Number of trades/free agent signings that have backfired for the Mets: 4

Number of times Mark Little has been designated for assignment: 1

Don't worry, Steve. You've got plenty of time to designate him a few more times to even your record.

2002-08-04T11:44:00.000-07:00

Mo offense needed

One of my favorite types of charts (ok, I sound like a geek; what kind of person has favorite charts?) is commonly used by Rob Neyer when making player comparisons. Here's one of them, showing a projected 162-game performance based on 2002 stats:

	AB	H	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Player A	567	127	57	16	0	14	68	62	167	.321	.324	.645	.224
Player B	562	167	112	23	0	58	135	68	171	.372	.648	.1.020	.296

Who are these players? Well, Player A is Mo Vaughn through June 23, and Player B is Vaughn from June 23 through his first at bat in today's game against Arizona, in which he homered. It's no secret that Mo's been on a tear of late, I was just curious to see how much better he's been. Sadly (for me), the Mets have only gone 17-18 since Mo heated up.

2002-08-03T21:47:00.000-07:00

One more thing...

How could I forget to point out that Ritchie's on pace for 20 losses? Most of you may already know that this hasn't been "accomplished" since Brian Kingman dropped 20 for Oakland in 1980. What most of you may not know is that Kingman did this for an 86-76 team, with a park-adjusted ERA only .07 worse than average (3.83 to 3.76). It seems fair to guess, without looking too much farther into it, that Kingman was simply a victim of shitty luck. On the other hand, Ritchie has the third-worst ERA in baseball, ahead of only Ryan Drese and Mr. "I signed here for the schools" himself, Mike Hampton. I know that Kingman is fiercely proud of his place in history; in recent years, he's attended the September starts of any pitcher who threatens to reach the Big Two-Oh, hoping to serve as a good luck charm and preserve his claim to fame. However, Kingman doesn't deserve the fame nor the stigma associated with such dubious achievements. Ritchie has put together a season that deserves to rank among the worst of the last ten years, and it will take something like losing 20 to gain that type of notoriety. Therefore, it is with good intentions and full apologies to Brian Kingman that I ask you all to now pray nightly for Ritchie to lose just five more games. If we all work together, it just might work.

(For a ton of great pace-related stats, check out Aaron Gleeman's entertaining and insightful blog.

2002-08-03T20:32:00.000-07:00

Well, that's why they don't call him Todd Pitchie...

For tonight's entry, we travel way back in time to December 2001, when the following trade summary could be seen on your favorite baseball web site's Transactions page:

Chicago White Sox acquired RHP Todd Ritchie and C Lee Evans from the Pittsburgh Pirates for RHP Sean Lowe, RHP Kip Wells and RHP Josh Fogg.

These guys weren't the best or even the most popular players traded in the offseason, but — of the top of my head — this deal strikes me as the worst of the offseason. After his shelling tonight, here's what Ritchie's season stat line looks like:

W	L	IP	SO	WHIP	ERA
5	15	131.0	75	1.70	6.18

Yuck. The other player Chicago received was minor-league catcher Lee Evans, who has progressed from AA to AAA in the Sox’s system this season. Evans, however, has not contributed to the ballclub this year. How does Ritchie compare to the big-leaguers the Pirates fetched for him?

	W	L	IP	SO	WHIP	ERA
Ritchie	5	15	131.0	75	1.70	6.18
Fogg	10	7	131.2	67	1.25	4.10
Wells	10	9	135.2	95	1.35	3.45
Lowe	4	2	67.0	55	1.66	5.10

Hmm. It sure looks like the Pirates cleaned Chicago’s clock on this deal. Before the 2001 season, White Sox GM Kenny Williams appeared to have pulled a fast one on Toronto when the Blue Jays discovered that Mike Sirotka — whom Williams had sent north of the border for Boomer Wells — was unable to pitch. While Wells was far from a success during his one-year tenure in the Windy City, Sirotka has yet to return to the majors.

Since the Sirotka-Wells deal, it seems every deal Kenny Williams makes eventually turns to rubbish. An anti-Midas in his field, Williams has traded away backfired free-agent signings (Kenny Lofton, Sandy Alomar, Jr.) and promising young talent (Fogg, Wells, Ray Durham) alike, and has almost nothing to show for it. Mark Buehrle, Paul Konerko and Magglio Ordoñez are the only things keeping the White Sox respectable, while Fogg and Wells have been bright spots in the Pittsburgh rotation. What really gooses me about the deal (gooses?) is that Williams actually mistook Ritchie for the type of player who could have helped the White Sox win. I mean, you don’t give up two young pitchers like Fogg and Wells unless you’re on the “win now” end of a vet-for-kids swap. I can think of no reason for Williams to make that trade unless he thought he was immediately helping the ballclub. If I haven’t made my opinion clear by now: Williams failed.

With Fogg and Wells coming into their own and Kris Benson’s return-to-form expected soon, along with Jimmy Anderson establishing himself as slightly better than the Pirates’ other options (not the highest compliment, but it's something), Pittsburgh fans should feel good about the relative stability in a rotation that hasn’t been anchored since Denny Neagle got his lottery ticket to Atlanta all those years ago.

Meanwhile, Chicago stinks. It isn’t fair to put all the blame for the failed 2002 campaign on Kenny Williams’ shoulders. The team’s young pitchers have been subpar, Keith Foulke hasn’t been very good and Lofton produced little after a hot start. But as the White Sox fall farther in the standings behind a team (Minnesota) with a much lower payroll, Kenny Williams needs to follow the leads of other recently-hired GMs Mark Shapiro and J.P Ricciardi. Otherwise, the White Sox will very soon be able to lay claim to one of the more dubious distinctions in sports: worst team in Chicago. I’m serious. I think they could really give the Bulls a run for their money in the next year or two. Hopefully, fans of the South Siders will find some consolation in the startup of NFL training camp.

2002-08-03T13:50:00.000-07:00

Nuts.

Okay, see, this is what I'm talking about. Armando Benitez just gave up a homer to Craig Counsell in the top of the ninth, and the game is tied at 5-5. Now, I mentioned before that Little was caught stealing last inning. What I didn't mention was what happened next. Rey Ordoñez got his fourth hit of the game (no, that's not a misprint), a single to left field. The next hitter, Tony Tarasco, struck out, ending the inning. But if Little runs the bases with the smarts that any 30-year-old player should have, there are two runners on with Robbie Alomar at the plate.

Obviously, we can't hang the blame for a potential loss on Little's baserunning error. He didn't give up the home run, Benitez did, and the game isn't even over yet. But if I know Mets fans, I'm not the only one ready to lynch the new guy if the Mets should lose.

2002-08-03T13:41:00.000-07:00

Big show, Little success

I'm listening to the first game of the Mets-Diamondbacks doubleheader over the Internet, and Mark Little was just caught in a rundown for the second out in the bottom of the 8th. This seems as good a time as any to unveil my prediction that Little will be one of the most useless Mets over the next two months. He's a 30-year-old outfielder with just over 200 career at bats, in which he's hit .251 with three homers and 18 RBI. The Mets recently acquired him in a deal for pitcher John Thomson, and the Rockies took Jay Payton (and Mark Corey and Robert Stratton). I'm guessing New York took Little over some other non-impact player because he can replace Payton in the outfield, but I just see no way he can help us.

2002-08-02T23:39:00.000-07:00

How much does Lieber have left?

The Cubs placed Jon Lieber on the 15-day DL today with tendinitis in his right (throwing) elbow, and I can't help but wonder if the 620+ regular-season innings Lieber's given the Cubbies since the start of the 2000 season have anything to do with it. His 2002 numbers don't seem to be far off from where they should be; he's 6-8 with a 3.80 ERA, and his 1.17 WHIP is good enough for sixth-best in the NL. He's allowed only 12 walks in 141 innings, and 12 of his 21 outings have been Quality Starts (6+IP,3-ER). These numbers look pretty good, but one thing worries me: his strikeout rates. Here's a chart detailing Lieber's performance in his six full years as a starter:

	IP	K/9IP
1997	188.1	7.65
1998	171.0	7.26
1999	203.1	8.23
2000	251.0	6.88
2001	232.1	5.73
2002	141.0	5.55

Lieber's elbow has been bothering him since Spring Training. He's put up a worse strikeout rate this season than ANY other in his career. He's thrown 200 innings the past three years, and is on pace for 215 this year. (Okay, so he'll miss two or three starts while on the DL, but you get the point.) Former manager Don Baylor has been criticized for letting his starters work too late into ballgames, and while there's certainly nothing wrong with running up a 120-pitch outing every three or four starts, Lieber should have been spared from such rigor this year, given the chronic state of his injury, and also his big workload the past few years. Also, interim manager Bruce Kimm has let it been known that he plans to ride his starters as long as possible. Says Kimm, "Ideally, you don't want to go past 110 a lot of times. But up here these guys are good athletes, and there's no reason they can't go 120, 125. It's not a set thing. But if they are really throwing well, I'll push them up to 120." Yikes. I mean, I can understand Kimm's reluctance to hand the ball over to the Cubs' relievers, but...

All kidding aside, such pitcher abuse (something tracked statistically by Baseball Prospectus) doesn't bode well for Lieber, who will be 33 next season. Is this the beginning of the end for Jon Lieber? Or will he overcome his elbow problems and return to his capable self? As someone once said, only to quoted by millions since: Only time will tell.

2002-08-02T17:37:00.000-07:00

Welcome, all.

Welcome to Digressions on Baseball. Please, make yourself comfortable. (Okay, put that back on.) My name is Misha Imberman Berkowitz, and I'm a Film/Math undergraduate at UC-Santa Cruz (go slugs?). For most of my 18 years I've been an avid baseball fan, and for the past two months I've been an unemployed baseball fan. With all this time at my disposal -- and the fastest Internet connection Pacific Bell's DSL service can muster -- I've been reading a lot about baseball this summer, from Bill James' New Historical Baseball Abstract and Win Shares to Rob Neyer's Baseball Dynasties to online material (Baseball Prospectus, Rob Neyer's work at ESPN.com, David Pinto's Baseball Musings). These authors' research and analysis have contributed much to my constantly-changing opinions, and have inspired me to transform my thoughts into words, my curosity into research and my love of baseball writing into a summertime hobby. Thanks for the motivation, fellas. I'm gunnin' for ya.