ZWL Tracker: 1-0

One game into the 2010 season, Zito sports a 1-0 record no matter how you slice it, which is good, because most fans still aren't hip to the Zito Win method of performance evaluation. The Giants and their fans might expect Zito to toss six innings of one-run ball every time out, but if last night's success proves to be an aberration, I'll be tracking his ZWL record all season long in this space, and everyone is welcome to enjoy this revisionist exercise along with me!

Introducing The Zito Win

Sometime during the 2008 season, my friend Nick and I were one of many thousands of Bay Area baseball fans horrified, violated, and generally non-plussed by the downright pathetic performance of Giants pitcher Barry Zito.

No matter where you turned, Zito jokes abounded, and with good reason: during a twenty-game stretch the previous season, the lefty had won only three games, and was even relegated to the bullpen one time (albeit, only for an inning). As frustrated as Giants fans had become during the Zito Experience, each poor outing he turned in led to a fresh layer of disappointment. Die-hards cursed the man and even casual fans seemed to pick up on the stench of disaster that accompanied every Zito start.

Meanwhile, more realistic fans like me and Nick began to realize that it was no longer fair to expect Zito to rediscover the magic that led to his then-record $126 million, seven-year payout. The Good Zito wasn't coming back, and if we were going to survive the remaining five-plus years on Bad Zito's contract without suffering massive cranial leakage, we all needed to shift our already-low expectations.

One night at AT&T Park, Nick and I observed the train wreck in person. Trying to scavenge for something constructive, we brainstormed various ways we could help salvage Zito's career by looking at the results of his "performance" from a non-traditional viewpoint. Much in the same that way that a rehabbing ace pitches against collegiate or low-minors batters to build up strength and confidence on his path to recovery, even a pitcher barely hanging on to his job like Zito will look like an All-Star if we lower the bar sufficiently.

Like Alexander Cartwright and Bill James before us, that night we invented the Zito Win.

When trying to evaluate a starting pitcher's success rate, it's not uncommon to look at his win-loss record. It's not a perfect metric by any means, but in Zito's case, through his first season and a half, his W-L record stood at 14-25. This was a terrible record, and certainly reflective of Zito's dismal performance, but somehow it just didn't seem to do him justice, and here's why:

If you listen to baseball broadcasts on TV or on the radio, you'll hear the color commentator celebrate a pitcher because his team has a high winning percentage in games started by that pitcher --- "He gives his team a chance to win every time he goes out." Well, through 2007 and the first part of 2008, Barry Zito certainly hadn't given the Giants a chance to win every night, but when the Giants did win, he must had something to do with it, right?

How to earn a Zito Win, Method #1:
If your team wins and you were the starter, you get the win.

Another expression we've all heard baseball announcers say is that a pitcher's done his job if he "keeps his team in the game." Different teams score different amount of runs, and the Quality Start metric tracks a pitcher's ability to complete six innings while allowing three runs or fewer. Nick and I decided that Zito needed a little more rope than that, though, because he'd been struggling so much. Besides, "quality" isn't an adjective, anyway, so we felt it was okay to re-write the definition a little bit:

How to earn a Zito Win, Method #2:
If you pitch at least give innings, and give up no more than five runs, you get the win.

Barry Zito may not have been performing up to the All-Star standards the Giants were paying him to, but by our Zito Win method, he had a real chance to succeed game in, game out. We figured that if Zito heard about this metric he might feel good about himself and start to turn things around. Maybe he heard us that night, and maybe he didn't. But one thing's for sure: Barry Zito has one heck of a ZW-L record:

	2007	2008	2009	Total
Original WL	11-13	10-17	10-13	31-43
Zito WL	24-9	25-7	27-6	76-22

Even with my terrible HTML layout skills, it's plain to see that we're looking at a pretty special few seasons as as long as we're measuring Zito this way. All of the team's wins became Zito Wins, and many of the other games that were originally no-decisions or losses become Zito Wins as well because of the pitcher's sub-9.00 ERA, or ZERA.

Tonight Barry Zito makes his first start of the season for the Giants, against an Astros lineup that doesn't have a lot of thunder. I think I smell a Zito Win.

Yanks vs. Red Sox, Game 1

Pre-Game Notes:

ESPN's pre-game team for the Yanks-Red Sox opening night broadcast: Karl Ravech, Bobby Valentine, John Kruk, Nomar Garciaparra, and... Curt Schilling.

After narrating a series of Curt-sucking highlighting, Ravech asks Schilling if he'd rather be on the field than behind the mic and Schilling coldly shoots him down: "I have no desire to put that uniform on right now." Geez Curt, was it really that bad? Can you at least pretend that it gave you joy to be a major leaguer?

For what seems like an eternity, Schilling explains the importance of throwing first-pitch strikes and getting ahead of the hitter. Schilling reels off statistic after statistic after statistic, tripping over his own words and completely losing 80% of ESPN's audience in the process. If Schilling is supposed to be the missing piece of the broadcast team that makes us forget Peter Gammons is gone, it isn't working.

Inexplicably, Dr. Dre and Lebron James join Ravech on the field to plus Beats by Dre and talk about the importance of music for professional athletes. Ravech to LeBron: "Are you naked as an athlete without music in your ear?" Good thing Greg Oden wasn't in town. That would have been awkward.

Game Notes:

• Orel Hershiser did well as the third man in the booth alongside Jon Miller and Joe Morgan. He wasn't afraid to criticize either the players --- after Granderson's homerun: "Beckett is getting lulled to sleep thinking his fastball is better than it is." Ouch. --- or the umpires --- "Joe West's strike zone can be the size of a postage stamp." --- and I felt I really learned something by listening to Orel.

• Kevin Youkilis got the first Jewish hit of the season, as well as the first Jewish run of the season. If we set the over/under on number of Jewish All Stars this year at 1.5, I'm taking the over. Youkilis and Ryan Braun are money in the bank

• My girlfriend Courtlyn, who is not a baseball fan, on Derek Jeter's squinty-eyed approach at the playe: "This guy looks stoned"

• Courtlyn on J.D. Drew: "I used to really like the name 'Drew' for a girl, and Sophie."

• Something I want to verify by reading blogs today: According to Jon Morgan, Mike Lowell got the biggest ovation from any player not in the starting lineup.

Keeping Them Honest: Mitch Willians

On the MLB Network's "30 Clubs in 30 Days" preview show about the Phillies, the Wild Thing proclaimed that new Philly second baseman Placido Polanco is "the best two-hole hitter in the game," and projected that when Polanco comes to the plate and Jimmy Rollins is on first base, Rollins will end up in scoring position 80 percent of the time.

Let's see how that works out.

Hard Times in April for Hardy

From Ben Shpigel's Monday notes on NYT:

There was nothing particularly unique about Luis Castillo’s winning hit Friday night in a 5-4 victory over the Brewers: (...) He bolted down the first-base line, his legs churning, his arms pumping, and beat J. J. Hardy’s throw by a step, allowing Carlos Delgado to score the winning run.

Shpigel offers this event as evidence of Castillo's resurgence since re-dedicating himself through intensive off-season workouts, and I'm not here to disagree that the Mets' second baseman of the present (and foreseeable future) certainly seems to be a fitter, happier version than we've grown used to.

But after watching the Mets-Brewers series finale at Citi Field -- a contest lost by the Mets, unfortunately -- it was hard to ignore the ways in which Milwaukee's shortstop of the present (and foreseeable future) must avoid struggling in the field in order to stave off concerns about his struggles at the plate in the early going.

To review Hardy's at bats in Sunday's game:

• 1st inning, bases loaded, one out. Hardy strikes out swinging.
• 3rd inning, bases empty, two outs. Hardy grounds out to 3rd on second pitch of AB.
• 6th inning, bases empty, no outs. Hardy fouls out on second pitch of AB.
• 8th inning, bases empty, one out. Hardy takes four pitches and pops out to 1b.

I know, I know, only four at bats.

But as of now, Hardy ranks 194th out of 197 qualified MLB hitters in batting average (8-for-54; .148) and 184th in OPS, which is buoyed by virtue of his three base hits which have cleared the fence.

The good news is, Hardy has been mostly reliable with the glove so far, which has helped Milwaukee achieve the 6th best UZR at the shortstop position thus far.

Hardy, along with Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and Yovani Gollardo, exemplifies the team's recent successful track record of drafting and development to provide the big league club with major league talent. Unfortunately for Hardy, the Brew Crew seem to have a nearly-ready SS replacement in Alcides Escobar, who is currently plying his trade in the Pacific Coast League and whose acumen with the glove could ostensibly inspire a call-up if he starts to hit, and the Brewers find a willing trade partner for their 26 year-old shortstop.

Hardy's career splits suggest that things will only improve at the plate, but if they don't, I wouldn't be surprised if Escobar is running the show by the trading deadline.