How much does Lieber have left?

The Cubs placed Jon Lieber on the 15-day DL today with tendinitis in his right (throwing) elbow, and I can't help but wonder if the 620+ regular-season innings Lieber's given the Cubbies since the start of the 2000 season have anything to do with it. His 2002 numbers don't seem to be far off from where they should be; he's 6-8 with a 3.80 ERA, and his 1.17 WHIP is good enough for sixth-best in the NL. He's allowed only 12 walks in 141 innings, and 12 of his 21 outings have been Quality Starts (6+IP,3-ER). These numbers look pretty good, but one thing worries me: his strikeout rates. Here's a chart detailing Lieber's performance in his six full years as a starter:

	IP	K/9IP
1997	188.1	7.65
1998	171.0	7.26
1999	203.1	8.23
2000	251.0	6.88
2001	232.1	5.73
2002	141.0	5.55

Lieber's elbow has been bothering him since Spring Training. He's put up a worse strikeout rate this season than ANY other in his career. He's thrown 200 innings the past three years, and is on pace for 215 this year. (Okay, so he'll miss two or three starts while on the DL, but you get the point.) Former manager Don Baylor has been criticized for letting his starters work too late into ballgames, and while there's certainly nothing wrong with running up a 120-pitch outing every three or four starts, Lieber should have been spared from such rigor this year, given the chronic state of his injury, and also his big workload the past few years. Also, interim manager Bruce Kimm has let it been known that he plans to ride his starters as long as possible. Says Kimm, "Ideally, you don't want to go past 110 a lot of times. But up here these guys are good athletes, and there's no reason they can't go 120, 125. It's not a set thing. But if they are really throwing well, I'll push them up to 120." Yikes. I mean, I can understand Kimm's reluctance to hand the ball over to the Cubs' relievers, but...



All kidding aside, such pitcher abuse (something tracked statistically by Baseball Prospectus) doesn't bode well for Lieber, who will be 33 next season. Is this the beginning of the end for Jon Lieber? Or will he overcome his elbow problems and return to his capable self? As someone once said, only to quoted by millions since: Only time will tell.