Hard Times in April for Hardy

From Ben Shpigel's Monday notes on NYT:

There was nothing particularly unique about Luis Castillo’s winning hit Friday night in a 5-4 victory over the Brewers: (...) He bolted down the first-base line, his legs churning, his arms pumping, and beat J. J. Hardy’s throw by a step, allowing Carlos Delgado to score the winning run.

Shpigel offers this event as evidence of Castillo's resurgence since re-dedicating himself through intensive off-season workouts, and I'm not here to disagree that the Mets' second baseman of the present (and foreseeable future) certainly seems to be a fitter, happier version than we've grown used to.

But after watching the Mets-Brewers series finale at Citi Field -- a contest lost by the Mets, unfortunately -- it was hard to ignore the ways in which Milwaukee's shortstop of the present (and foreseeable future) must avoid struggling in the field in order to stave off concerns about his struggles at the plate in the early going.

To review Hardy's at bats in Sunday's game:

• 1st inning, bases loaded, one out. Hardy strikes out swinging.
• 3rd inning, bases empty, two outs. Hardy grounds out to 3rd on second pitch of AB.
• 6th inning, bases empty, no outs. Hardy fouls out on second pitch of AB.
• 8th inning, bases empty, one out. Hardy takes four pitches and pops out to 1b.

I know, I know, only four at bats.

But as of now, Hardy ranks 194th out of 197 qualified MLB hitters in batting average (8-for-54; .148) and 184th in OPS, which is buoyed by virtue of his three base hits which have cleared the fence.

The good news is, Hardy has been mostly reliable with the glove so far, which has helped Milwaukee achieve the 6th best UZR at the shortstop position thus far.

Hardy, along with Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and Yovani Gollardo, exemplifies the team's recent successful track record of drafting and development to provide the big league club with major league talent. Unfortunately for Hardy, the Brew Crew seem to have a nearly-ready SS replacement in Alcides Escobar, who is currently plying his trade in the Pacific Coast League and whose acumen with the glove could ostensibly inspire a call-up if he starts to hit, and the Brewers find a willing trade partner for their 26 year-old shortstop.

Hardy's career splits suggest that things will only improve at the plate, but if they don't, I wouldn't be surprised if Escobar is running the show by the trading deadline.

Fernando Tatis chases Gibson

From Baseball Musings, the five active players who have the most active career HRs without a walkoff job:

Ty Wigginton - 110
Aaron Rowand - 108
Fernando Tatis - 103
Garrett Atkins - 91
Xavier Nady - 87

I can't help but notice that three of these players (Wiggy, Tatis, Nady) have logged time for the Mets...

Also, it surprises me that Tatis only has 103 career dingers, given that his sole claim to fame is related to the long ball. That said, his only standout season was the 1999 campaign, in which he cleared 34 balls over the wall. More recently (since 2002) Tatis has registered just 511 at bats, so it's not like he's had ample opportunity to build on his totals.

The last-minute surprise addition of Gary Sheffield and today's signing of Wily Mo Pena could clog up the Mets outfield reserve scene a little bit, but Fernando should still have plenty of chances to get that elusive walk-off homerun in 2009. He has been used as a pinch hitter three times this season and over the weekend made his first career start at second base to spell Luis Castillo, both of which seem to indicate Jerry Manuel is determined to work Tatis into the lineup.

I've never been terribly enthusiastic about Tatis' presence on the Mets roster. Sure, you could do a lot worse for a 4th outfielder -- just look at what the Giants were getting out of Dave Roberts the last couple of years -- and he's probably a little better than Endy Chavez at the plate, or Jeremy Reed, or Angel Pagan, for that matter. It's just hard to get excited about Fernando Freakin' Tatis, ya know?

It's anybody's guess how often and in what situations Tatis will continue to see action this season, especially given the plethora of other options on hand. But a walk-off homerun is an exciting enough event to hope for, and if nothing else, I now have a reason to hope Tatis is the next one to deliver one for the Mets.

Hard to live down

From today's THT Daily Extremes, on how Milton Bradley's incipient two-game suspension may affect
fantasy value:

He will continue to play until an appeal is heard, if healthy, of course.

Redding aboard?

My gut reaction when I saw that the Mets were close to a deal with Tim Redding was disappointment tempered with fond remembrance. Either of the final two spots of the Mets rotation would seem to be open for Redding, who reached career highs in starts, innings and strikeouts as the only double-digit winner for the cross-division Nationals in 2008, and who should be perfectly capable of eating innings for the boys in orange and blue in 2009.

Although he racked up a 10-11 record for a team that finished 43 games under .500, Redding's other numbers last season were fairly unimpressive. His 110 runs allowed were the fifth most of any pitcher in the National League, so his bloated win total is pretty clearly a result of having received the ninth best run support among NL pitchers. Scoring runs doesn't figure to be a big problem for the Mets, so I'm not overly concerned about what will happen on the nights Redding starts.

Still, even though signing Redding shouldn't financially restrict Omar Minaya from chasing bigger fish like Andy Pettitte, Derek Lowe, or the Mets' own unsigned free agent starters (Oliver Perez and Pedro Martinez), Minaya's acquisition of talent that would seem to slot in behind, rather than in front of projected No. 3 starter Mike Pelfrey is tough to digest.

On one hand, I don't expect Redding to negatively impact my favorite team's fortunes in 2009 all that much because I don't even really expect him to be in the rotation for length of the season. Redding's salary will reportedly be $2.5 million and if his performance (or lack thereof) warrants it, the Mets can cut ties with Redding for a relatively reasonable payoff.

Even if he stays in the rotation for the whole year, I won't be too upset. Steve Trachsel held tenure with the Mets for six seasons and even though he seemed to be on the wrong side of a quality start most nights, his consistently mediocre performance was something to look forward to. In October 2006, I watched in a sold-out Dodger Stadium as Trachsel went inning for inning with Greg Maddux and kept the Mets in the game long enough for the Mets to break through to the Dodgers pen.

The Mets went on to win that game and advanced to the NLCS, where Trachsel was ineffective against the Cardinals, and the Mets lost the series in seven games. The Mets didn't bring Trachsel back in 2007, and I don't think he was missed by most fans, but my memories of Trachsel are mostly positive. He was never brilliant, but it wasn't his fault that he lacked talent. He took the ball when it was his turn, and never complained or lacked effort.

Two years of the Barry Zito era in San Francisco have been ample reminder that making long-term commitments can hamstring a GM's roster flexibility. A three- or four-year deal, which is what Scott Boras is seeking for Lowe and Perez, would provide either starter an opportunity to carry the Mets to a pennant, but either contract would also cost the team significantly more cash and could lead to a distastrous fallout should performance fall short of expectations.

Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown, and more recently Zito and Adrian Beltre are examples of players whose additions cost their teams millions of dollars but perhaps more costly was the hope lost among fans of the Dodgers, Yankees, Giants and Mariners who watched these players fail to live up to the hype. Mets fans remember the recent signings of Martinez and Billy Wagner and couldn't be blamed for having muted optimism as Frankie Rodriguez comes to town as the newest hired gun.

It was because Martinez and Orlando Hernandez were injured, after all, that Trachsel's number was called in Game 3 of the NLDS. Whereas the two talented, former World Series winning aces were sidelined for the Mets only postseason activity of the last eight years, slow and steady Steve Trachsel was ready when his number was called. The pricier, flashier pitchers that Minaya savors are still out there for the chasing, but there are no guarantees that Lowe will remain subtly effective, or that Perez can ever deliver on his potential.

Maybe Tim Redding will be the No. 4 starter the Mets never knew they needed, and if they're wrong, $2.5 million won't be too tough to stomach, I guess.

Teixeira Helps, But Yanks Need More Bats

It's late December, and the Yankees are doing the Yankee thing. Last week the Bombers locked up free agent prize Mark Teixeira after securing the fearsome lefty-righty combination of C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

Sabathia was the best-known (if not the best) free agent pitcher available for hire -- winning a Cy Young Award and then going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA as a mid-season acquisition while pushing your new team to its first playoffs in 26 years tends to raise one's profile -- and Burnett is an intriguing commodity in his own right, having thrown a no-hitter in 2001 but toiling in relative obscurity in Miami and Toronto since coming into the league. The general perception seems to be that Burnett is a flaky, all-or-nothing type of performer, but it's difficult to ignore his recent production, as he fanned 231 batters in 2008, the third highest total in MLB, trailing only his new teammate Sabathia and the Giants' young flamethrower, Tim Lincecum.

Signing them both cost the Yankees over $240 million, and for the most successful and prolific franchise in the history of American professional sports, it's just another offseason. Depending on where one stands on the Yankees, the signings of Sabathia and Burnett were either tittilating or repulsive. It is expected by both fans and detractors that the Yankees will constantly re-invent by loading up on free agent offerings. It's happened recently with Mike Mussina, Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Gary Sheffield, and Hideki Matsui, to cite just a few examples.

Even (and perhaps especially) in this economic climate, the Yankees prefer and are well suited to chase free agent talent rather than wait for internal assets to develop. Yankee fans and players embrace a culture of must-win baseball, and after missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993, there's no time like the present to loosen the purse strings if it helps usher in a new era of supremacy. The Yankees did not become a force to be reckoned with on and away from the baseball diamond by standing pat. They spend money to make money, and what better way to fill seats at their new, team-financed stadium than by bringing in fresh talent?

Joe Girardi certainly won't mind heading to Spring Training with perhaps just one rotation spot to fill. In the wake of Mussina's retirement and given Andy Pettitte's weird quasi-holdout situation, adding Sabathia and Burnett will alleviate some pressure for younger Yankee starters Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, who could slot in as the No. 4 and 5 options behind the new signees and Chien-Ming Wang. It's worth noting, though, that even the revered Wang (whose record stands, remarkably, 34 games over .500 after only 97 big-league appearances) will be watched closely in his first season after foot surgery. Picking up a pair of aces may well propel them to the playoffs sooner rather than later, but bolstering their offensive output will be particularly crucial for the Yankees in 2009 and beyond, and adding Teixeira is (or should be) just the first piece of the puzzle.

Landing Teixeira was no accident. The 28 year-old first baseman is represented by that fabled wrangler of moolah, Superagent Scott Boras, and the Yankees are one of the few teams that can afford his cosmic salary demands ($180 million). Carrying the Boras brand usually gets a player paid, and in Teixeira's case it's a testimony to both his talent and his track record. After winning the Dick Howser Trophy as the top college ballplayer in 2001, Teixeria was the fifth overall draft choice that same year, and might have been drafted even higher if the Phillies hadn't been burned previously by one of Boras' other draftees (read the amusing summary here on Wikipedia). Teixeira broke into the bigs with Texas two years later and the modest successes achieved in his rookie campaign (60 extra-base hits, .811 OPS in 146 games played) helped the Rangers feel comfortable cutting ties with aging and expensive Rafal Palmeiro, along with their more infamous Boras property, Alex Rodriguez.

Teixeira has continued to excel, if inconspicuously, racking up two Gold Glove Awards and producing at least 30 homeruns and 100 RBI in every season since. The case could be made that he's a perfect fit for the Yankees, who have proven themselves quite deft at acquiring Boras' clients and working to keep them comfortable (A-Rod, Johnny Damon and Teixeria are the big names printed on pinstriped jerseys, but Xavier Nady and Kennedy tithe to Boras as well). Because he performs consistently and quietly, Teixeira projects to be a more bankable and certainly less notorious acquisition than other recent Yankee free agent splashes like Pavano and Giambi. No matter how you slice it, Teixeira was quite a cherry on top of a winter that has already been sweet to Yankees fans.

The spotlight will definitely be on Teixeira, who will be expected to provide lineup protection for A-Rod as the two players play out the rest of their contracts in pinstripes. Gone is Giambi, gone is Bobby Abreu, and after a season in which Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter showed their age and Robinson Cano's early struggles raised eyebrows, who knows where else the runs will come from in 2009? Nick Swisher could bounce back from an uninspiring stint with the White Sox, and Matsui can be counted on for .290-15-80 if he's healthy, but the Boras Boys will need some help if the Yankees are to score runs for their new hired guns.

Should the Yankees find themselves in third place after, say, 50 games, don't be surprised if they go hard after Magglio Ordonez or Matt Holliday to build up a new Murderer's Row. Both sluggers will be free agents after the season (as will be the Angels' Vlad Guerrero), and the Rockies and Tigers may be eager to deal in order to get some type of compensation for their departure.

Such bold moves might have to wait until the winter if the teams invovled can't strike a deal, but that shouldn't stop the Bombers from opening up the bank. After all, it's the Yankee way.

Popping the Question: who -- or what -- is an MVP candidate?

As the season enters its final month, predicting baseball's playoff teams is a tricky exercise. Following the pennant races requires daily scoreboard watching and magic number recalculation. This is especially true in the National League, where every club except Washington, Chicago and Pittsburgh is within five games of the Wild Card spot.

Amid constant realignment of standings, flurries of last-second waiver deals and potentially devastating injuries, there is still so much baseball left that the process of forecasting October matchups may seem a trifling matter, although knowing this doesn't stop us from staying up late at night, wondering if Josh Rabe will get postseason at bats against lefties, and how Jeff Weaver might figure into the Cards' playoff rotation, for example.

No less daunting a challenge, and thus all the more ripe for debate, is the task of identifying the player in each league who is deserving of the MVP award.

Ah, the Most Valuable Player. Just typing the words brings frustration. The award's winner must perform at a level of superlative excellence, yet the methods for identifying excellent performance are superlatively undefined. Must he come from a playoff team? Has he driven in lots of runs? Produced without lineup protection? Does he dazzle in the field? Can he raise his game against rival teams? How clutch is he? To get to the heart of the MVP debate, we must decide what qualities are important in a candidate, and then we can attempt to quantify these qualifications.

Of course, this is easier said than done.

Consider the phrase in whole: Most Valuable Player. Not a single word of the three clarifies our expectation of who should be among those discussed as candidates. After all, what constitutes a "player?" Does this designation apply only to fielders who "play," or do "players" designated as hitters fit the bill? What about pitchers? Are they not "players?" Before we can differentiate among different types of "value," gauge their varying capacities to be measured, and extrapolate a ranking of these metrics, arguments for who is eligible as a "player" stand to complicate the discussion.

Just as the Wild Card has impacted the dynamics of September (and October) baseball, discourse on the MVP award has shifted accordingly. Over the coming days and weeks, I will study the threads of logic and preference that have produced the MVP finalists of the last dozen seasons. By focusing on the top end of each ballot, I hope to determine what qualities are favored in the selection of certain candidates over others as most valuable. My findings will be based on data available at Baseball-Reference.com and Retrosheet.org, and other sources, as noted.

(Note: While it may be difficult, I will try to avoid treating the voting bloc of the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) as a monolithic entity, and parse the behavior of its members into distinct categories as best I can -- with the data available. Any reader who is able to provide me with links or information about confirmed, actual complete MVP ballots as submitted by BBWAA members would be extremely helpful, as my own research efforts to collect such data have produced few successes.)

Early Surprises in a Seesaw Season

Bad luck and good luck (usually) battle to put a stamp on a season’s worth of box scores. For instance, pointing to the Washington Nationals’ outstanding record in one-run games was a popular explanation for the team’s early dominance last season. Sure enough, the Nats’ luck evened out as their fluky run of close victories sharply reversed course on July 7. Come playoff-time, Washington’s first-half success was but a memory, as Frank Robinson’s diaspora of the diamond tumbled its way to an 81-81 record that was almost comedic in its exactness. (It could be argued that the team’s meteoric first-half play carried more weight than its collapse, following the simplistic assumption that the winning ways helped spread excitement and goodwill throughout the D.C. area, and made feasible the notion of a publicly-funded stadium. In this way, Major League Baseball earned some much-needed political capital in the nation’s capital despite a rather “blah” introduction.)

The idea that the law of averages will catch up with a streaking ball club looms large when attempting to evaluate a team’s record just 35 games in. However, while it is often said that a win is a win – each game counts just as much in the standings, no matter when it is played – translating that idea to the realm of individual performance does not always compute. Fact is, nobody wants to get off to a rough start, whether a team or a player, but this is particularly true of career role players, and of players who have not yet cashed in on free agency. Just as the Nationals’ streakiness was the somewhat inevitable consequence of playing a 162 game-season, every hitter will experience ups and downs, but the timing of a hot start, combined with other factors, goes a long way toward alleviating concerns that a player may never make it in the show.

I’m not suggesting we overlook the frustrations and pressure that exist for struggling veterans, too. There is nothing fun about watching former All-Stars Edgardo Alfonzo and Bernie Williams play their way to the bench, and far be it from me to question their desire as competitors. It’s consoling to know, however, that these guys can look back and remember when, rather than wondering what if. Players of their stature can fall back on a pile of money to cushion the blow of a disappointing start. Does anybody honestly think Adrian Beltré has felt that much pressure since he got paid by Seattle? It isn’t very difficult to imagine Esmerelda, the cab driver from Pulp Fiction, driving Adrian home from the ballpark after another Mariners loss. Through a heavy accent, Esmerelda would curiously ask, “How does it feel to keelll a baseball team?” Adrian, of course, would answer with a knowing sigh, “I don’t feel the least bit bad about it.” Despite his modest six-game hitting streak, which has lifted his average to the ugh-ly mark of.221, Beltré seems a longshot to escape enshrinement in the Darin Erstad Hall of Veterans Who Became Multimillionaires Because of Unsustainable Breakout Seasons, where fans will be able to admire his plaque alongside those belonging to Jon Garland and Javy Lopez. But I digress.

I have identified some players whose early-season successes typify the excitement and confusion inherent in trying to understand five weeks’ worth of data, let alone prognosticating the unforeseen. My choice of subjects is arbitrary and incomplete – I might well have discussed Alexis Rios, Xavier Nady or Austin Kearns, to name a few. Nobody I know predicted this level of supremacy for these (mostly) unproven hitters; this is what they have in common. Each is on his way to having a fine season, and each needed to have this type of success for the sake of establishing himself as a player of true major-league caliber.

Perhaps because he appeared (and appears) the least likely of the group to betray all previous levels of performance, perhaps because his name is alliterative, I have written mostly about the Indians’ Ben Broussard. To the extent that it is possible, let’s try to get a more accurate read on his batting numbers compiled as of May 9, and see what jumps out.

Ben Broussard: First Base, Cleveland Indians; Age 29 - 465 Career games
Early returns: .395 batting average; 5 homeruns; 22 runs batted in
Projected 2006 totals: .395-25-111
Previous career highs (minimum 100 ABs): .275 avg. (’04); 19 HR (’05); 82 RBI (’04)

Big Ben has settled nicely into his role as the No. 6 hitter in Eric Wedge’s lineup after a 2005 season in which he oscillated from the three-hole to the seven-spot. The left-handed member of Cleveland’s first base platoon, Broussard provides adequate protection for Travis Hafner and Victor Martínez and is benefiting from seeing opposing pitchers work the lefty and switch-hitter (respectively) in front of him. Until this year, I tended to prematurely historicize Broussard as a weaker descendent of Jim Thome, Richie Sexson and Russell Branyan – all former Indians sluggers in the Three True Outcomes mold – even though Broussard never did walk much, or hit all that many homeruns for that matter. I’m not sure what to make of this, I just felt like sharing my prejudice.

Anyway, Broussard broke through in a big way during a three-game series against the Red Sox, when he was 7-for-9 with three taters and 10 ribbies, including 8 RBI on April 27. The Boston series was a keen example of how quickly a player’s batting line can turn around at this stage of the season, but catching fire early is more important than it may seem for Broussard. The Indians are eagerly grooming Ryan Garko as their first baseman of the future, with Michael Aubrey waiting in the wings.

It may be naïve to suggest that Broussard, or any major leaguer, is motivated by such things, and I am wary of putting too much stock in Broussard’s quick start, partially because his history as a streaky performer is difficult to ignore. The role of luck is obvious when considering Broussard’s home/road splits: through Monday’s games, his numbers at Jacobs Field are staggering (.513 avg., .548 obp., .974 slg.), but on the road he has performed like a slightly better version of Marlon Byrd (.298/.340/.365). He isn’t usually asked to face lefties, against whom he is hitting a paltry .125 with six punchouts in 16 tries, compared to 32-for-70 (.457) with 22 RBI against right-handers.

There’s not much here to suggest that 2006 might be the Year of Ben Broussard any more than it might be the Year of Ron Belliard, or it might be the Year of Eduardo Pérez. My point, of course, it that if we assume he stays in the sixth spot of the order, a full season of Broussard at his peak realistically could net the Indians something like 25 homeruns and 111 RBI, and wouldn’t that be wonderful? Sure, there will be regression in Broussard’s batting average, which is currently 129 points better than his career line and may fall below .300 by month’s end. On the other hand, it’s not as though much of anything was expected out of him, beyond a slight improvement over his 2005 OPS of .770, which ranked 11^th out of 15 AL first basemen who totaled at least 400 plate appearances last season. Broussard, whose number of at bats has increased every year since his 2002 debut, is a classic late-bloomer, a guy who hung around long enough to finally become useful. Allow me to boldly predict that you and I are witnessing the beginnings of what will be his career year. How glorious the bloom, dear friends, we shall have to wait and see.

Other April/May Surprises:
(Stats are through games Wednesday, May 11, 2006)

Casey Blake: Left Field, Cleveland Indians; Age 32 - 533 Career games
Early Returns: .368-4-24
Projected 2006 totals: .368-19-111
Previous career highs: .271 avg., 28 HR, 88 RBI (all in ’04)

Admittedly, it might be a bit of a stretch to think of Blake as an unproven player; given his age and résumé – he is a three-time draft pick, a three-time waiver claimee, a two-time Minnesota Twin with a .779 lifetime OPS – nobody could be blamed for holding fast to her conception of Blake as nothing more than a career fourth-outfielder who happens to play for a contender in the American League Central. In case you’re wondering: No, I don’t mind if it’s obvious that I’m making excuses for my antipathy toward mighty Casey and his unseemly .368 batting average, which is second-highest in the bigs and OBVIOUSLY can’t last.

There is a silver lining in my cloud of pessimism, which is that you can say what you will about homeruns being commonplace and having too much impact on slowing the modern game, but dingers are still the best measurable outcome of an at bat we can think of, and the records show that Casey Blake has hit more of them (72) since 2003 than any Cleveland hitter not named Pronk. His ability to do this, and stay healthy (he has missed just 37 in that span) make him about as bankable a player as can be found. There’s just not much available for withdrawal.

Joe Crede: Third Base, Chicago White Sox; Age 28 - 536 Career games
Early returns: .319-7-25
Projected 2006 totals: .319-34-123
Previous career highs: .285 avg. (’02); 22 HR (’05); 75 RBI (’03)

Okay, so maybe Crede wasn’t exactly fighting for a roster spot. It would have taken a lot for or Pablo OzunaAlex Cintron to supplant one of Chicago’s postseason heroes, but with the young Josh Fields doing quite nicely in his first tour of the International League, Crede’s huge strides at the plate so far have likely spared GM Kenny Williams the potentially difficult decision of cutting bait on a homegrown talent who has yet to pan out as expected. Super Joe has been great in the clutch, batting .379 (11-for-27) with 17 RBI in ABs with runners in scoring position, and really turning up the heat when there are two outs (.378-4-11).

It so happens that Crede has a shot at becoming the first Sox third baseman with three straight 20-HR seasons, which is nice, but there’s a reason such tidbits are referred to as “trivia.” If Jermaine Dye’s history of injuries continues to be a problem, the need for Crede to out-perform his career line of .259/.308/.447 will become much more pressing.

Nick Johnson: First Base, Washington Nationals; Age 27 - 486 Career games
Early Returns: .320-9-22
Projected 2006 totals: .320-43-105
Previous career highs: .289 avg. (’05); 15 HR (’02 & ’05); 74 RBI (’05)

Johnson finally seems to be shaping into the more rounded (not in the pre-2002 Jason Giambi sense) hitter the Expos were hoping for when they sent Javier Vazquez to the Bronx in December 2003. To call him a disappointment would be an exaggeration, but his sporadic power and inability to stay on the field haven’t exactly inspired confidence in those who follow his career with more than passing interest. The mustache that once was shorn has now returned, and so the baseball-playing cousin of Rod Farva is back on track, batting .400 with three long-bombs and eight RBI in his last five games. Facing Pittsburgh and then playing in Cincinnati will do that for a hitter. Context aside, Big Nick has been consistently roping the ball this season.

Prior to this season, I pegged Johnson as a likely candidate to find another gear to his offense, in part because of the mustache, but mostly because he 2006 is Johnson’s Magical Age 27 Season. He always knew how to get on base (266 walks in 486 games), a skill which has led to 21 non-intentional walks, twelfth-most in the ML. So far, Johnson has delivered on that promise, failing to reach safely in only four games he’s started. Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Zimmerman can handle the bat, and Josés Vidro and Guillen are on board as high-end filler. Johnson is the heart of the order, and is a good bet to reach one, if not two of those triple crown projections listed above. Remaining entirely healthy may be a struggle, but if he is, Johnson will remain consistent enough at the dish to challenge Lee Stevens for 30^th place in RBI on the all-time franchise leaderboard. And he’s got a better mustache.

Ty Wigginton: Second / Third Base, Tampa Bay Devil Rays; Age 28 - 436 Career game
Early Returns: .256-9-30
Projected 2006 totals: .256-44-145
Previous career highs: .302 avg. (’02); 17 HR (’04); 71 RBI (’03)

Wigginton is he most genuinely surprising power source to emerge this season. After the Pirates released him this past off-season, it seemed the one-time Mets third baseman of the present was on the fast track to irrelevance (or Japan, at best). The Devil Rays, bless their heart, felt he was worthy of a roster spot, and were rewarded with the most torrid streak of power this side of Chris Shelton. From April 11 to April 22, Wigginton upped his ante in Tampa Bay by smoking seven homers in 11 games. At the conclusion of Wiggy’s mini-explosion, his rate stats stood at .302/.353/.730.

In the three weeks since, a 13-for-62 (.201) slide has damaged those averages; even worse, Ty has managed just three extra-base hits since his power surge, and may find playing time tough to come by as Aubrey Huff and (eventually) Jorge Cantu return from injury. Depth at third base happens to be one of the Rays’ strengths in 2006, and Wigginton’s stay with Tampa Bay may not survive Russell Branyan’s next hot streak. Perhaps I’m being unfair, but do any of us really think of Ty as a player who absolutely must be in the lineup? I could be way wrong about Wigginton. I was wrong before… It was September of 2002, the summer of love… T-Wig was an up-and-coming role player for New York, making the most of his opportunities. After hitting two pinch-hit homeruns and batting .358 for the month, Ty seemed like a scrappy type who could adequately replace Edgardo Alfonzo at third base, when the time was right. I admit without shame that I was briefly fooled into believing Wiggy was a player who could outlast Derek Jeter in the New York spotlight. By the time he was shipped to the Pirates for Kris Benson, that special feeling was long gone.

Wigginton is a perfect example of how baseball’s long season is a gift that keeps on giving. Sure, come September, his hot start will long be forgotten, but by then, dozens of others will have picked up the torch to light the baseball world on fire for two, three, maybe four weeks at a time. It’s unlikely that all the players mentioned in this space will pan out in 2006, but a few of them will enjoy breakout seasons, and maybe even earn a first All-Star selection. Wouldn’t it be great to see Chris Shelton, the ultimate hot-to-cold April story, return to Pittsburgh to represent the Detroit Tigers at the midsummer classic? Stay tuned for more information.