Thursday, April 13, 2006

Everyone Plays on Friday - AL Predictions

Angels (5-4, 1st) @ Orioles (5-5, 4th)
Ervin Santana (1-0, 1.59) - Rodrigo Lopez (1-1, 6.39)

SoCal's most promising team begins a 10-game road trip tonight, and will face the O's, whose 59 runs scored rank second in the American League, trailing only the Yankees. By contrast, the Halos have scored just 38 runs, which at least is more than Kansas City. Baltimore's starter, Father Rodrigo, has defeated the Angels four times in a row, averaging 6.5 IP and a 1.04 ERA since 2003. I predict a change in all these patterns. Vladimir Guerrero has been under the radar so far this season, and it seems about time for Vladdy to have one of those 10-13, 3 HR, 9 RBIs kind of weekends. Prediction: ANGELS

Indians (6-3, 1st) @ Tigers (5-4, T-2nd)
Jake Westbrook (2-0, 1.98) - Kenny Rogers (1-1. 4.76)

As Cleveland begins a 10-game road trip of its own, I might worry about Travis Hafner's ability to dominate an opposing lefty pitcher. Fortunately, for Pronk, that lefty is Kenny Rogers. Detroit has already come back to Earth - after winning their first five games, the Tigers have yet to taste victory again - and success in this four-game series against the Indians would do a lot for the confidence of this young pitching staff. But after Rogers is abused in this opening matchup (I'm predicting 7 or 8 runs, maybe 4 innings) the Tigers will wish they had never left the Motor City. Prediction: INDIANS

Mariners (5-5, 3rd) @ Red Sox (6-3, 1st)
Jamie Moyer (0-1, 4.38) - Curt Schilling (2-0, 1.93)

Since 2000, Moyer is 1-6 with a 7.79 ERA against the Red Sox. I expect more of the same, as Wily Mo Pena and Dustan Mohr play their way into the hearts of Boston fans. Okay, so maybe that's a bit of a stretch, but nobody needs to see Adam Stern and David Ortiz play the outfield against lefties (LOOK: Big Papi is listed as an outfielder. Crazy!). The Mariners truly seem like a .500 ballclub, albeit one of the most exciting .500 ballclubs in recent memory. Ichiro and King Felix get the pub, but there are more interesting questions: Is Yuniesky Betancourt ready to play everyday? Can Rafael Soriano replace Eddie Guardado as the team's closer? Will Scott Spiezio continue to haunt the Mariners from beyond the grave? Few of these questions will be answered today; all of them will be on my mind. Prediction: RED SOX

Royals (2-6, 5th) @ Rays (4-6, 5th)
Scott Elarton (0-2, 3.29) - Scott Kazmir (1-1, 5.68)

Who will win the Battle of the Scotts? Who cares? Prediction: RAYS

Yankees (5-4, T-2nd) @ Twins (4-5, 4th)
Mike Mussina (1-0, 2.77) - Scott Baker (0-1, 6.23)

This is the one game I would love to watch today, as the Fabulous Baker Boy will try to stave off a Yankee lineup that is scarier than Rene Russo in Two for the Money.
Seriously, though, Giambi is a mean son of a gun, and nobody ever looked forward to facing A-Rod, Jeter or Sheffield. After Kyle Lohse survived against Oakland the other day, it is now Baker who is on the hot seat in the Twins rotation. One of these two is the candidate likely to be pulled for up-and-comer Francisco Liriano at some point this season, hopefully (for my fantasy team) before the All-Star Break. I won't speculate that Baker's job security rests on his performance against the Yankees today - talk about pressure - but he should have his post-game bottle of moonshine ready, just in case it's a night he'll want to forget. Prediction: YANKEES

Blue Jays (5-4, T-2nd) @ White Sox (5-4, T-2nd)
Scott Downs (0-0, 5.40) - Javier Vazquez (0-0, 2.57)

Is there anyone who can stop Jim Thome? Downs would seem an unlikely candidate; one of six southpaws on Toronto's 40-man roster, he has been dubbed by Baseball Prospectus, "The epitome of the replacement-level lefty." For the uninitated, "replacement-level" denotes exactly what it appears to, and Downs may, in fact, epitomize the type. He "boasts" a career 5.02 ERA in 262 major league innings, and allows a homerun about every seven frames. If that level of performance cannot be easily replaced, J.P. Ricciardi is in for a long season. Even if Thome doesn't go yard tonight, it's a good bet that one (or three) of his teammates will, and Javy Vazquez should pitch effectively enough to give Chicago's bullpen (.287 BAA) some much-needed rest. Prediction: WHITE SOX

Rangers (3-7, 4th) @ Athletics (5-5, 2nd)
Kevin Millwood (0-2, 7.36) - Barry Zito (1-1, 8.59)

A matchup of de jure aces, and AL West rivals, this should be a hard-fought game as neither club wants to fall much further off the pace. In Millwood's rookie season with Atlanta, all five starting pitchers finished with at least 16 wins, an achievement that spoke to the durability and depth of the rotation. This year, Oakland's prized collection of Zito, Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and Esteban Loaiza has a decent chance to accomplish the same feat. Winning games against lesser teams, such as Texas, will go a long way toward getting the A's back into the postseason. A note of caution: the Braves failed to make the World Series in 1998. Prediction: ATHLETICS

Check back tomorrow to see how these picks stacked up, and enjoy the games!

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